Jaguars opened at 77 percent on the model before a snap, and the score is still 0-0 with 13:27 left in the first. Nobody in this thread has a number yet, so the 77 is the only thing on the board.
NFL · · EverBank Field · every National Football League line
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreColts 7, Jaguars 42 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerJaguars 77%
- Pregame Projected scoreJaguars 27, Colts 18
- Model spreadJaguars −9.5 total 45
- Margin35 projected 9.5
- Total49 projected 45
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Indianapolis Colts or Jacksonville Jaguars: the bandwagon
Axle 23–77Market 18–82
FinalPregame: JAX 77%Baseline: JAX 93.6% (+16.2)Big swing: 10.0 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| JAX | 7 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 42 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for JAX over the last 5:00
Big swing10.0 ptstoward JAX at 2:59 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineJAX 93.6%game average, +16.2 points from the pregame 77.4%
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | IND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | IND243 | JAX366 |
| First downs | IND17 | JAX18 |
| 3rd down | IND3/11 | JAX6/12 |
| 4th down | IND0/2 | JAX0/0 |
| Turnovers | IND3 | JAX1 |
| Penalties-yards | IND9-54 | JAX8-65 |
| Yards per play | IND4.0 | JAX6.9 |
| Time of possession | IND30:22 | JAX29:38 |
| Red zone | IND1/2 | JAX1/1 |
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | IND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Score | IND7 | JAX42 |
| Average win probability | IND6% | JAX94% |
| Longest scoring run | IND+7 | JAX+35 |
| Time leading | IND0:00 | JAX49:13 |
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET
Colts23%
Win chanceJaguars77%
SpreadJAX −9.5closing model spread
Total45
Moneyline+343away / −343homeaway / home
Line movementJAX win chance, 13 stored lines
−4 pts for JAX between Oct 28 and Nov 1
86%72%
Oct 28Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | JAX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 77% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 81% | — |
- Ratings
- JAX 1601 · IND 1416
- Home spread
- −9.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET · 2026-11-01 20:53 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Indianapolis Colts 7, Jacksonville Jaguars 42. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries in the data, not usedplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · read Oct 31, 5:30 AM UTC
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
ColtsJaguars
Neutrals only–
ColtsJaguars
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Jaguars–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Colts vs Jaguars odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi had the Jaguars at 82% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 82% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 77% when last read, .
| Source | IND | JAX | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 18% | 82% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 18% | 82% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 23% | 77% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, JAX: +4Polymarket minus model, JAX: +4
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Jaguars a 9.5-point favorite at home, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 45. Ratings: Jaguars 1615 (7th of 32), Colts 1403 (26th). The Jaguars are 5-2 in the AFC South; the Colts are 2-6 in the AFC South. The Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5; the Colts 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Jaguars won 5, the Colts 1. The roster source lists 12 Jaguars and 8 Colts players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Indianapolis Colts
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Jacksonville Jaguars | L 7–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Vikings | L 10–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Titans | L 20–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Steelers | L 22–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Commanders | W 30–13 | – | – | matchup |
Jacksonville Jaguars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Indianapolis Colts | W 42–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Texans | L 31–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Eagles | W 19–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cincinnati Bengals | W 22–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | W 35–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | 23–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | 19–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | 34–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars | 20–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | 31–21 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce WR, Cam Taylor-Britt CB, Arden Key DE, Micheal Clemons DE, Cameron Mitchell CB, Sean McKeon TE, D.J. Montgomery WR, Carson Towt TE
Jacksonville Jaguars: DaVon Hamilton DT, Caleb Ransaw S, Eric Murray S, B.J. Green II DE, Jared Bartlett LB, Garrett DiGiorgio OT, Zach Durfee DE, Anton Harrison OT, Parker Hughes LB, Devon Marshall CB, Patrick Mekari G, Sam Mustipher C
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Colts2-6 AFC South, 3rd · L4
- Colts rating1403 26th of 32, 8 games
- Jaguars5-2 AFC South, 1st · W1
- Jaguars rating1615 7th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · AFC South · 3rd · streak L4
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $COLTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $COLTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $COLTS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $COLTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indianapolis Colts bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC South · 1st · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $JAGUARS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $JAGUARS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $JAGUARS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $JAGUARS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Jacksonville Jaguars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
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Final: Colts 7, Jaguars 42. Bandwagon's model had the Jaguars at 77% and projected Jaguars 27, Colts 18; spread Jaguars −9.5, total 45. Last read: Kalshi 82%, Polymarket 82% for the Jaguars.