New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerPatriots 54%
- Projected scorePatriots 24, Lions 23
- Model spreadPatriots −1 total 47.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New England Patriots or Detroit Lions: the bandwagon
Axle 54–46Market 53–47
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NE | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NE– | DET– |
| Average win probability | NE– | DET– |
| Longest scoring run | NE– | DET– |
| Time leading | NE– | DET– |
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 46% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 47% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 45% | +12 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 33% | — |
- Ratings
- DET 1580 · NE 1599
- Home spread
- +1 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Neutral siteforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Patriots vs Lions odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Patriots at 53%, Polymarket at 54% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NE | DET | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% | 47% | ||
| Polymarket | 54% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 54% | 46% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Patriots a 1-point favorite, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 47.5. Ratings: Lions 1580 (10th of 32), Patriots 1599 (8th). The Lions are 5-2 in the NFC North; the Patriots are 5-3 in the AFC East. The Lions have won 4 of their last 5; the Patriots 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Lions won 0, the Patriots 1. The roster source lists 12 Lions and 13 Patriots players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New England Patriots
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Miami Dolphins | W 24–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bears | L 24–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 26–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Las Vegas Raiders | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bills | W 29–26 | – | – | matchup |
Detroit Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Vikings | W 19–15 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Green Bay Packers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 45–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Carolina Panthers | L 26–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions at New England Patriots | 0–29 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New England Patriots: Romeo Doubs WR, Mack Hollins WR, Harold Landry III LB, Reggie Gilliam FB, Julian Hill TE, Dell Pettus S, Marcus Bryant OT, Quintayvious Hutchins LB, Khalil Jacobs LB, Myles Montgomery RB, Mike Onwenu G, Greg Van Roten G, Alijah Vera-Tucker G
Detroit Lions: Isiah Pacheco RB, Kerby Joseph S, Devin White LB, Tom Kennedy WR, Avonte Maddox CB, Damone Clark LB, Thomas Harper S, Ben Bartch G, Kendrick Law WR, Giovanni Manu OT, Cade Mays C, Payton Turner DE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Patriots5-3 AFC East, 2nd · W1
- Patriots rating1599 8th of 32, 8 games
- Lions5-2 NFC North, 2nd · W3
- Lions rating1580 10th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · AFC East · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PATRIOTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New England Patriots bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Detroit Lions 5-2
National Football League · NFC North · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $LIONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Patriots 54% to win. Projected score Patriots 24, Lions 23; spread Patriots −1, total 47.5. Kalshi 53%, Polymarket 54% for the Patriots. New England Patriots at Detroit Lions, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET.