Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSeahawks 73%
- Projected scoreSeahawks 27, Raiders 21
- Model spreadSeahawks −7 total 48
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Seattle Seahawks or Las Vegas Raiders: the bandwagon
Axle 73–27Market 55–45
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SEA | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA– | LV– |
| Average win probability | SEA– | LV– |
| Longest scoring run | SEA– | LV– |
| Time leading | SEA– | LV– |
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | LV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 27% | +4 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 23% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 23% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 21% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 15% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 15% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 15% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 15% | — |
- Ratings
- LV 1411 · SEA 1628
- Home spread
- +7
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Seahawks vs Raiders odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Seahawks at 54%, Polymarket at 57% (3 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 73%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SEA | LV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 54% | 46% | ||
| Polymarket | 57% | 43% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 73% | 27% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seahawks a 7-point favorite, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 48. Ratings: Raiders 1411 (25th of 32), Seahawks 1628 (3rd). The Raiders are 4-4 in the AFC West; the Seahawks are 4-4 in the NFC West. The Raiders have won 1 of their last 5; the Seahawks 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Raiders won 1, the Seahawks 0. The roster source lists 7 Raiders and 6 Seahawks players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Seattle Seahawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago Bears | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | W 20–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Broncos | L 14–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Francisco 49ers | L 29–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 30–23 | – | – | matchup |
Las Vegas Raiders
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York Jets | W 38–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Rams | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Bills | L 30–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks | 40–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Seattle Seahawks: Jake Bobo WR, Elijah Arroyo TE, Robbie Ouzts FB, Bud Clark S, Julian Neal CB, Mason Richman G
Las Vegas Raiders: Patrick Johnson DE, Carter Runyon TE, Brennan Jackson LB, Chigozie Anusiem CB, Chris Collier RB, Keyron Crawford DE, Justin Pickett G
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Seahawks4-4 NFC West, 2nd · L1
- Seahawks rating1628 3rd of 32, 8 games
- Raiders4-4 AFC West, 3rd · W1
- Raiders rating1411 25th of 32, 8 games
Seattle Seahawks 4-4
National Football League · NFC West · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SEAHAWKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle Seahawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC West · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $RAIDERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Las Vegas Raiders bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders
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Model: Seahawks 73% to win. Projected score Seahawks 27, Raiders 21; spread Seahawks −7, total 48. Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 57% for the Seahawks. Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET.