National Football League odds Thursday, November 5
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's National Football League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Football League odds Thursday, November 5
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars at Ravens | Jaguars 60% | Jaguars −2.5 | 45.5 | −152 / +152 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 1 of 1
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 1 of 1
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 1
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 1
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries in the data but not used for 1
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores · newest read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 1
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 1
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Football League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 1668 | 7 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 1634 | 8 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 1628 | 8 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 1620 | 7 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 1616 | 7 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 1615 | 8 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1615 | 7 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 1599 | 8 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 1589 | 8 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 1580 | 7 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1571 | 8 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1562 | 7 |
Top 12 of 32; every team's rating is on its page.
National Football League model record
Over 976 National Football League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 64% of the time, Brier score 0.2236, mean spread error 10.221 points, mean total error 10.664. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Football League games Thursday, November 5: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.