National Football League odds Sunday, November 15
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's National Football League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Football League odds Sunday, November 15
12 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Lions neutral site | Patriots 54% | Patriots −1 | 47.5 | −118 / +118 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bills at Jets | Bills 84% | Bills −11.5 | 49 | −507 / +507 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chiefs at Falcons | Chiefs 59% | Chiefs −2 | 44.5 | −141 / +141 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dolphins at Colts | Colts 59% | Colts −3 | 45 | +144 / −144 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaguars at Titans | Jaguars 83% | Jaguars −11 | 44 | −475 / +475 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Saints | Saints 52% | Saints −1 | 49 | +106 / −106 | no move | Matchup | |
| Texans at Browns | Texans 55% | Texans −1 | 44 | −123 / +123 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Packers | Vikings 55% | Vikings −1 | 40.5 | −125 / +125 | no move | Matchup | |
| Rams at Cardinals | Rams 71% | Rams −6 | 47 | −247 / +247 | no move | Matchup | |
| Seahawks at Raiders | Seahawks 73% | Seahawks −7 | 48 | −272 / +272 | no move | Matchup | |
| 49ers at Cowboys | 49ers 68% | 49ers −5 | 48.5 | −212 / +212 | no move | Matchup | |
| Steelers at Bengals | Bengals 54% | Bengals −1.5 | 46 | +117 / −117 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 12 of 12
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 12 of 12
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 12
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 12
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 12 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 9 · unavailable for 3 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 5 · unavailable for 7 (Neutral site; Roofed venue)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Football League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 1668 | 7 |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 1634 | 8 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 1628 | 8 |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 1620 | 7 |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 1616 | 7 |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | 1615 | 8 |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1615 | 7 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 1599 | 8 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 1589 | 8 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 1580 | 7 |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1571 | 8 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1562 | 7 |
Top 12 of 32; every team's rating is on its page.
National Football League model record
Over 976 National Football League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 64% of the time, Brier score 0.2236, mean spread error 10.221 points, mean total error 10.664. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Football League games Sunday, November 15: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.