Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerVikings 55%
- Projected scoreVikings 21, Packers 20
- Model spreadVikings −1 total 40.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Vikings or Green Bay Packers: the bandwagon
Axle 55–45Market 44–56
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MIN | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN– | GB– |
| Average win probability | MIN– | GB– |
| Longest scoring run | MIN– | GB– |
| Time leading | MIN– | GB– |
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | GB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 44% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 45% | +3 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 42% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 40% | +5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 35% | — |
- Ratings
- GB 1539 · MIN 1616
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vikings vs Packers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Vikings at 44%, Polymarket at 43% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 55%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MIN | GB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 56% | ||
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 55% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Vikings a 1-point favorite, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 40.5. Ratings: Packers 1539 (14th of 32), Vikings 1616 (5th). The Packers are 5-3 in the NFC North; the Vikings are 6-1 in the NFC North. The Packers have won 4 of their last 5; the Vikings 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Packers won 2, the Vikings 4. The roster source lists 14 Packers and 7 Vikings players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Vikings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Detroit Lions | L 15–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indianapolis Colts | W 16–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Dolphins | W 15–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 23–16 | – | – | matchup |
Green Bay Packers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Carolina Panthers | W 27–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Lions | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Cowboys | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Bears | W 31–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 22–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 3–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | 6–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 25–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers | 31–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings | 33–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams LB, Jordan Mason RB, Josh Oliver TE, Tyler Batty LB, Donovan Jackson G, Dwight McGlothern Jr. CB, Nick Samac C
Green Bay Packers: Micah Parsons DE, Javon Hargrave DT, Skyy Moore WR, Edgerrin Cooper LB, Jayden Reed WR, Luke Musgrave TE, Chris Brooks RB, Jonathan Ford DT, Warren Brinson DT, Collin Oliver DE, Johnathan Baldwin II S, Zach Bako-Bewele OT, Jacob Monk C, Thomas Yassmin TE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Vikings6-1 NFC North, 1st · L1
- Vikings rating1616 5th of 32, 7 games
- Packers5-3 NFC North, 4th · W1
- Packers rating1539 14th of 32, 8 games
National Football League · NFC North · 1st · streak L1
No stances yet today on $VIKINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · NFC North · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PACKERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Green Bay Packers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Vikings 55% to win. Projected score Vikings 21, Packers 20; spread Vikings −1, total 40.5. Kalshi 44%, Polymarket 43% for the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET.