Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBengals 54%
- Projected scoreBengals 24, Steelers 22
- Model spreadBengals −1.5 total 46
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Pittsburgh Steelers or Cincinnati Bengals: the bandwagon
Axle 46–54Market 41–59
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT– | CIN– |
| Average win probability | PIT– | CIN– |
| Longest scoring run | PIT– | CIN– |
| Time leading | PIT– | CIN– |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 54% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 53% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 56% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 52% | — |
- Ratings
- CIN 1562 · PIT 1571
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Steelers vs Bengals odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Bengals at 59%, Polymarket at 59%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PIT | CIN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% | 59% | ||
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 46% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bengals a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win. The model total is 46. Ratings: Bengals 1562 (12th of 32), Steelers 1571 (11th). The Bengals are 5-2 in the AFC North; the Steelers are 6-2 in the AFC North. The Bengals have won 3 of their last 5; the Steelers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bengals won 2, the Steelers 4. The roster source lists 8 Bengals and 12 Steelers players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Pittsburgh Steelers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cleveland Browns | W 27–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 16–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 26–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indianapolis Colts | W 34–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Browns | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup |
Cincinnati Bengals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Tennessee Titans | W 43–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baltimore Ravens | W 35–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Dolphins | W 31–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville Jaguars | L 17–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Steelers | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 27–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 12–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals | 31–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 19–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals | 44–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | 11–34 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Pittsburgh Steelers: Roman Wilson WR, Michael Pittman Jr. WR, DeShon Elliott S, Sebastian Joseph-Day DT, Logan Lee DT, Derrick Harmon DT, Donte Kent CB, Daequan Hardy CB, Cole Burgess WR, Jack Driscoll OT, Gennings Dunker G, Max Hurleman RB
Cincinnati Bengals: Andrei Iosivas WR, Erick All Jr. TE, Swayze Bozeman LB, Ja'Sir Taylor CB, Jalen Davis CB, Cashius Howell DE, Tanner Hudson TE, Brian Parker II OT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Steelers6-2 AFC North, 1st · W4
- Steelers rating1571 11th of 32, 8 games
- Bengals5-2 AFC North, 2nd · W3
- Bengals rating1562 12th of 32, 7 games
National Football League · AFC North · 1st · streak W4
No stances yet today on $STEELERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Steelers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC North · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BENGALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cincinnati Bengals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Bengals 54% to win. Projected score Bengals 24, Steelers 22; spread Bengals −1.5, total 46. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 59% for the Bengals. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET.