Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBills 52%
- Projected scoreBills 22.8, Vikings 22.7
- Model spreadeven total 45.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Buffalo Bills or Minnesota Vikings: the bandwagon
Axle 52–48Market 63–37
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BUF | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF– | MIN– |
| Average win probability | BUF– | MIN– |
| Longest scoring run | BUF– | MIN– |
| Time leading | BUF– | MIN– |
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 48% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 50% | −3 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 53% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 52% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- MIN 1616 · BUF 1668
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bills vs Vikings odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Bills at 63%, Polymarket at 63%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 52%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BUF | MIN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 63% | 37% | ||
| Polymarket | 63% | 37% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 52% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bills the favorite, with a 52% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 45.5. Ratings: Vikings 1616 (5th of 32), Bills 1668 (1st). The Vikings are 6-1 in the NFC North; the Bills are 6-1 in the AFC East. The Vikings have won 4 of their last 5; the Bills 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Vikings won 1, the Bills 0. The roster source lists 7 Vikings and 4 Bills players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Buffalo Bills
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Baltimore Ravens | W 36–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 33–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Rams | W 37–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Patriots | L 26–29 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 24–16 | – | – | matchup |
Minnesota Vikings
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Detroit Lions | L 15–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indianapolis Colts | W 16–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Saints | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Dolphins | W 15–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 23–16 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills | 33–30 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Buffalo Bills: Tyrell Shavers WR, Jordan Hancock CB, Dorian Strong CB, Zane Durant DT
Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams LB, Jordan Mason RB, Josh Oliver TE, Tyler Batty LB, Donovan Jackson G, Dwight McGlothern Jr. CB, Nick Samac C
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bills6-1 AFC East, 1st · W3
- Bills rating1668 1st of 32, 7 games
- Vikings6-1 NFC North, 1st · L1
- Vikings rating1616 5th of 32, 7 games
Buffalo Bills 6-1
National Football League · AFC East · 1st · streak W3
No stances yet today on $BILLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Buffalo Bills bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · NFC North · 1st · streak L1
No stances yet today on $VIKINGS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
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Model: Bills 52% to win. Projected score Bills 22.8, Vikings 22.7; spread even, total 45.5. Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 63% for the Bills. Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET.