Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnereven
- Projected scoreColts 24, Cowboys 24
- Model spreadeven total 48.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Dallas Cowboys or Indianapolis Colts: the bandwagon
Axle 51–49Market 70–31
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | DAL | IND |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL– | IND– |
| Average win probability | DAL– | IND– |
| Longest scoring run | DAL– | IND– |
| Time leading | DAL– | IND– |
Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | IND win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 49% | +3 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 46% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 48% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 46% | — |
- Ratings
- IND 1403 · DAL 1447
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Roofed venueforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cowboys vs Colts odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Cowboys at 70%, Polymarket at 70%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 51%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DAL | IND | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 70% | 31% | ||
| Polymarket | 70% | 31% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 51% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 49% for the Colts. The model total is 48.5. Ratings: Colts 1403 (26th of 32), Cowboys 1447 (20th). The Colts are 2-6 in the AFC South; the Cowboys are 3-5 in the NFC East. The Colts have won 1 of their last 5; the Cowboys 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Colts won 0, the Cowboys 1. The roster source lists 8 Colts and 8 Cowboys players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Dallas Cowboys
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arizona Cardinals | L 30–33 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Eagles | W 38–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Green Bay Packers | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 16–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Texans | W 34–30 | – | – | matchup |
Indianapolis Colts
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Jacksonville Jaguars | L 7–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Vikings | L 10–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tennessee Titans | L 20–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pittsburgh Steelers | L 22–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Commanders | W 30–13 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys | 19–54 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Dallas Cowboys: Marist Liufau LB, Jalen Thompson S, Jonathan Bullard DT, Malik Davis RB, Princeton Fant TE, Kelvin Gilliam Jr. DT, Matt Hennessy C, Devin Moore CB
Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce WR, Cam Taylor-Britt CB, Arden Key DE, Micheal Clemons DE, Cameron Mitchell CB, Sean McKeon TE, D.J. Montgomery WR, Carson Towt TE
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cowboys3-5 NFC East, 2nd · L1
- Cowboys rating1447 20th of 32, 8 games
- Colts2-6 AFC South, 3rd · L4
- Colts rating1403 26th of 32, 8 games
Dallas Cowboys 3-5
National Football League · NFC East · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $COWBOYS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Cowboys bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC South · 3rd · streak L4
No stances yet today on $COLTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indianapolis Colts bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: even. Projected score Colts 24, Cowboys 24; spread even, total 48.5. Kalshi 70%, Polymarket 70% for the Cowboys. Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET.