Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerTexans 61%
- Projected scoreTexans 23, Chargers 21
- Model spreadTexans −3 total 44
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Houston Texans or Los Angeles Chargers: the bandwagon
Axle 61–39Market 67–33
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | HOU | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | HOU– | LAC– |
| Average win probability | HOU– | LAC– |
| Longest scoring run | HOU– | LAC– |
| Time leading | HOU– | LAC– |
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | LAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:56 PM ET | 39% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 41% | +7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 34% | — |
- Ratings
- LAC 1399 · HOU 1516
- Home spread
- +3
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Texans vs Chargers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Texans at 67%, Polymarket at 68% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | HOU | LAC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 67% | 33% | ||
| Polymarket | 68% | 32% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 61% | 39% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Texans a 3-point favorite, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 44. Ratings: Chargers 1399 (28th of 32), Texans 1516 (15th). The Chargers are 0-7 in the AFC West; the Texans are 2-5 in the AFC South. The Chargers have won 0 of their last 5; the Texans 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Chargers won 1, the Texans 2. The roster source lists 9 Chargers and 12 Texans players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Houston Texans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New York Giants | L 21–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville Jaguars | W 34–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tennessee Titans | W 26–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Cowboys | L 30–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indianapolis Colts | L 17–19 | – | – | matchup |
Los Angeles Chargers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Los Angeles Rams | L 9–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Chiefs | L 6–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Denver Broncos | L 17–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | L 23–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bills | L 16–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers | 20–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans | 12–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans | 34–24 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Houston Texans: Tank Dell WR, Graham Mertz QB, Jayden Higgins WR, Mario Edwards Jr. DT, E.J. Speed LB, British Brooks RB, Jake Hummel LB, Solomon Byrd DE, Ali Gaye DE, Dylan Horton DE, Sam Hagen G, K.C. Ossai LB
Los Angeles Chargers: Trey Lance QB, Derwin James Jr. S, David Njoku TE, Alec Ingold FB, Denzel Perryman LB, Trevor Penning G, Trey Pipkins III OT, Rashawn Slater OT, Isaiah World OT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Texans2-5 AFC South, 2nd · L1
- Texans rating1516 15th of 32, 7 games
- Chargers0-7 AFC West, 4th · L7
- Chargers rating1399 28th of 32, 7 games
Houston Texans 2-5
National Football League · AFC South · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $TEXANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC West · 4th · streak L7
No stances yet today on $CHARGERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Los Angeles Chargers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
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Model: Texans 61% to win. Projected score Texans 23, Chargers 21; spread Texans −3, total 44. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 68% for the Texans. Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET.