Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerBroncos 72%
- Projected scoreBroncos 26, Panthers 20
- Model spreadBroncos −6.5 total 46.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Denver Broncos or Carolina Panthers: the bandwagon
Axle 72–28Market 58–42
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | DEN | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DEN– | CAR– |
| Average win probability | DEN– | CAR– |
| Longest scoring run | DEN– | CAR– |
| Time leading | DEN– | CAR– |
Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CAR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 28% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 29% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 29% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 30% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 31% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 28% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 28% | — |
- Ratings
- CAR 1429 · DEN 1634
- Home spread
- +6.5
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 5, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Broncos vs Panthers odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Broncos at 58%, Polymarket at 58%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 72%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DEN | CAR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 58% | 42% | ||
| Polymarket | 58% | 42% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 72% | 28% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 6.5-point favorite, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 46.5. Ratings: Panthers 1429 (23rd of 32), Broncos 1634 (2nd). The Panthers are 3-4 in the NFC South; the Broncos are 6-2 in the AFC West. The Panthers have won 2 of their last 5; the Broncos 4 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Panthers won 1, the Broncos 1. The roster source lists 11 Panthers and 10 Broncos players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Denver Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas City Chiefs | W 28–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Cardinals | W 30–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Seahawks | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Chargers | W 23–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Francisco 49ers | L 14–24 | – | – | matchup |
Carolina Panthers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Green Bay Packers | L 19–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L 13–43 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Eagles | W 25–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Lions | W 32–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cleveland Browns | L 18–21 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos | 14–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers | 10–23 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Denver Broncos: RJ Harvey RB, Jonah Elliss LB, Pat Bryant WR, Tyler Badie RB, Caleb Lohner TE, Levelle Bailey LB, Frank Crum OT, Michael Deiter C, Nick Gargiulo G, Matt Henningsen DE
Carolina Panthers: Xavier Legette WR, Jaycee Horn CB, Jonathon Brooks RB, Akayleb Evans CB, Mike Jackson CB, Nic Scourton LB, Cam Jackson DT, Thomas Incoom LB, Chris Brazzell II WR, Ikem Ekwonu OT, Taylor Moton OT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Broncos6-2 AFC West, 1st · W4
- Broncos rating1634 2nd of 32, 8 games
- Panthers3-4 NFC South, 1st · L2
- Panthers rating1429 23rd of 32, 7 games
Denver Broncos 6-2
National Football League · AFC West · 1st · streak W4
No stances yet today on $BRONCOS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · NFC South · 1st · streak L2
No stances yet today on $PANTHERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Carolina Panthers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
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Model: Broncos 72% to win. Projected score Broncos 26, Panthers 20; spread Broncos −6.5, total 46.5. Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 58% for the Broncos. Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET.