New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerChiefs 80%
- Projected scoreChiefs 27, Jets 17
- Model spreadChiefs −10.5 total 44
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New York Jets or Kansas City Chiefs: the bandwagon
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Axle 20–80Market 19–81
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NYJ | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYJ– | KC– |
| Average win probability | NYJ– | KC– |
| Longest scoring run | NYJ– | KC– |
| Time leading | NYJ– | KC– |
New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | KC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 80% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 81% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 79% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 78% | — |
- Ratings
- KC 1554 · NYJ 1339
- Home spread
- −10.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Jets vs Chiefs odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Chiefs at 81%, Polymarket at 82% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 80%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NYJ | KC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 81% | ||
| Polymarket | 18% | 82% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 80% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chiefs a 10.5-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 44. Ratings: Chiefs 1554 (13th of 32), Jets 1339 (31st). The Chiefs are 5-2 in the AFC West; the Jets are 2-6 in the AFC East. The Chiefs have won 3 of their last 5; the Jets 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Chiefs won 1, the Jets 0. The roster source lists 10 Chiefs and 13 Jets players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New York Jets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Las Vegas Raiders | L 33–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Dolphins | L 25–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Patriots | L 19–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland Browns | W 17–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bears | L 12–23 | – | – | matchup |
Kansas City Chiefs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Denver Broncos | L 24–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Seahawks | L 3–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Chargers | W 22–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Las Vegas Raiders | W 30–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Dolphins | W 24–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets | 23–20 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New York Jets: T'Vondre Sweat DT, Tim Patrick WR, Braiden McGregor DE, David Onyemata DT, Arian Smith WR, Tyler Baron DE, Kingsley Jonathan DE, Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB, Anez Cooper G, Caullin Lacy WR, Max Mitchell OT, VJ Payne S, Chip Trayanum RB
Kansas City Chiefs: Tyquan Thornton WR, L'Jarius Sneed CB, Omarr Norman-Lott DT, Brashard Smith RB, Ethan Downs LB, Jeff Caldwell WR, John Michael Gyllenborg TE, Jimmy Holiday WR, Josh Simmons OT, Matt Waletzko OT
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jets2-6 AFC East, 3rd · L3
- Jets rating1339 31st of 32, 8 games
- Chiefs5-2 AFC West, 2nd · L2
- Chiefs rating1554 13th of 32, 7 games
New York Jets 2-6
National Football League · AFC East · 3rd · streak L3
No stances yet today on $JETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York Jets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC West · 2nd · streak L2
1 stance today on $CHIEFS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas City Chiefs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
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Model: Chiefs 80% to win. Projected score Chiefs 27, Jets 17; spread Chiefs −10.5, total 44. Kalshi 81%, Polymarket 82% for the Chiefs. New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET.