Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerPatriots 63%
- Projected scorePatriots 24, Packers 20
- Model spreadPatriots −4.5 total 43.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Green Bay Packers or New England Patriots: the bandwagon
Axle 37–63Market 38–62
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | GB | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | GB– | NE– |
| Average win probability | GB– | NE– |
| Longest scoring run | GB– | NE– |
| Time leading | GB– | NE– |
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 11:30 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:41 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:36 PM ET | 63% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:29 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:13 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:08 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 3:53 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 62% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 9:54 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 8:05 PM ET | 64% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 69% | — |
- Ratings
- NE 1599 · GB 1539
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Football League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Packers vs Patriots odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NFL marketKalshi prices the Patriots at 62%, Polymarket at 62%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | GB | NE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38% | 62% | ||
| Polymarket | 38% | 62% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Patriots a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 43.5. Ratings: Patriots 1599 (8th of 32), Packers 1539 (14th). The Patriots are 5-3 in the AFC East; the Packers are 5-3 in the NFC North. The Patriots have won 4 of their last 5; the Packers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Patriots won 0, the Packers 1. The roster source lists 12 Patriots and 14 Packers players as injured.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Green Bay Packers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Carolina Panthers | W 27–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Detroit Lions | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Dallas Cowboys | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Bears | W 31–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup |
New England Patriots
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Miami Dolphins | W 24–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Bears | L 24–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Jets | W 26–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Las Vegas Raiders | W 45–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bills | W 29–26 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers | 24–27 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Green Bay Packers: Micah Parsons DE, Javon Hargrave DT, Skyy Moore WR, Edgerrin Cooper LB, Jayden Reed WR, Luke Musgrave TE, Chris Brooks RB, Jonathan Ford DT, Warren Brinson DT, Collin Oliver DE, Johnathan Baldwin II S, Zach Bako-Bewele OT, Jacob Monk C, Thomas Yassmin TE
New England Patriots: Romeo Doubs WR, Mack Hollins WR, Harold Landry III LB, Reggie Gilliam FB, Julian Hill TE, Dell Pettus S, Quintayvious Hutchins LB, Khalil Jacobs LB, Myles Montgomery RB, Mike Onwenu G, Greg Van Roten G, Alijah Vera-Tucker G
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Packers5-3 NFC North, 4th · W1
- Packers rating1539 14th of 32, 8 games
- Patriots5-3 AFC East, 2nd · W1
- Patriots rating1599 8th of 32, 8 games
National Football League · NFC North · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PACKERS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Green Bay Packers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Football League · AFC East · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PATRIOTS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New England Patriots bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Patriots 63% to win. Projected score Patriots 24, Packers 20; spread Patriots −4.5, total 43.5. Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 62% for the Patriots. Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET.