NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Thursday, November 12
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Thursday, November 12
24 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hatters at Bison | Bison 81% | Bison −11 | 144.5 | +437 / −437 | no move | Matchup | |
| Roos at Patriots neutral site | Patriots 87% | Patriots −13.5 | 144 | +675 / −675 | no move | Matchup | |
| Braves at Eagles neutral site | Braves 77% | Braves −6.5 | 145.5 | −342 / +342 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Retrievers | Retrievers 81% | Retrievers −10.5 | 145.5 | +424 / −424 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lakers at Nittany Lions | Nittany Lions 67% | Nittany Lions −6 | 144 | +199 / −199 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Eagles at Hoosiers | Hoosiers 82% | Hoosiers −11 | 149.5 | +447 / −447 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Griffins at Bears | Bears 71% | Bears −7 | 143.5 | +240 / −240 | no move | Matchup | |
| Blue Devils at Pioneers | Pioneers 69% | Pioneers −6.5 | 145.5 | +220 / −220 | no move | Matchup | |
| Roadrunners at Leathernecks | Leathernecks 61% | Leathernecks −4.5 | 145.5 | +158 / −158 | no move | Matchup | |
| Greyhounds at Tigers | Tigers 80% | Tigers −10.5 | 146 | +402 / −402 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Mountaineers | Mountaineers 74% | Mountaineers −8 | 145.5 | +279 / −279 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hawks at Bobcats | Bobcats 66% | Bobcats −5.5 | 146 | +195 / −195 | no move | Matchup | |
| Purple Eagles at Falcons | Falcons 81% | Falcons −10.5 | 145 | +420 / −420 | no move | Matchup | |
| Thunderbirds at Panthers | Panthers 88% | Panthers −14.5 | 145.5 | +761 / −761 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hawks at Rams | Rams 81% | Rams −11 | 145.5 | +435 / −435 | no move | Matchup | |
| Argonauts at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 57% | Bulldogs −3 | 145.5 | +135 / −135 | no move | Matchup | |
| Broncos at Mastodons | Mastodons 70% | Mastodons −7 | 143 | +238 / −238 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Jaguars neutral site | Jaguars 56% | Jaguars −3 | 145.5 | +129 / −129 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cowboys at Aggies | Aggies 74% | Aggies −8 | 147.5 | +287 / −287 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spiders at Salukis | Salukis 68% | Salukis −6.5 | 145.5 | +215 / −215 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaguars at Golden Gophers | Golden Gophers 71% | Golden Gophers −7 | 145.5 | +247 / −247 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bobcats at Cougars | Cougars 77% | Cougars −9 | 149 | +340 / −340 | no move | Matchup | |
| Aggies at Miners | Miners 55% | Miners −2.5 | 145.5 | +123 / −123 | no move | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Spartans | Spartans 65% | Spartans −5.5 | 145.5 | +188 / −188 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 24 of 24
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 24 of 24
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 23 of 24 · unavailable for 1 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 24 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 24 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 17 · unavailable for 7 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 24 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Thursday, November 12: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.