NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Saturday, November 14
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Saturday, November 14
59 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Tigers | Tigers 84% | Tigers −12.5 | 145.5 | +540 / −540 | spread −12 → −12.5 | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Dons | Dons 67% | Dons −6 | 145.5 | +206 / −206 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spartans at Big Red | Big Red 77% | Big Red −9 | 145.5 | +329 / −329 | no move | Matchup | |
| Green Wave at Zips | Zips 84% | Zips −12.5 | 149 | +542 / −542 | no move | Matchup | |
| Braves at Patriots neutral site | Patriots 55% | Patriots −2.5 | 145.5 | +122 / −122 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dragons at Black Bears | Black Bears 50% | Black Bears −1.5 | 145 | +102 / −102 | no move | Matchup | |
| Grizzlies at Fighting Hawks | Fighting Hawks 59% | Fighting Hawks −3.5 | 145.5 | +144 / −144 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tommies at Black Knights | Tommies 67% | Tommies −3 | 146 | −199 / +199 | no move | Matchup | |
| Ramblers at Rams | Rams 80% | Rams −10.5 | 145 | +398 / −398 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Ospreys | Ospreys 72% | Ospreys −7.5 | 143 | +253 / −253 | no move | Matchup | |
| Eagles at Bulls | Bulls 92% | Bulls −17 | 147 | +1140 / −1140 | no move | Matchup | |
| Runnin' Bulldogs at Gamecocks | Gamecocks 84% | Gamecocks −12 | 143.5 | +515 / −515 | no move | Matchup | |
| RedHawks at Purple Aces | RedHawks 71% | RedHawks −4.5 | 145.5 | −245 / +245 | no move | Matchup | |
| Huskies at Knights | Knights 75% | Knights −8.5 | 147.5 | +301 / −301 | no move | Matchup | |
| Owls at Lumberjacks | Lumberjacks 82% | Lumberjacks −11 | 145.5 | +452 / −452 | no move | Matchup | |
| Skyhawks at Red Raiders | Red Raiders 88% | Red Raiders −14.5 | 145.5 | +736 / −736 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Eagles | Eagles 83% | Eagles −11.5 | 145.5 | +478 / −478 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chippewas at Norse | Norse 75% | Norse −8.5 | 148 | +304 / −304 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 86% | Bulldogs −13 | 147 | +599 / −599 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hornets at Pirates | Pirates 77% | Pirates −9 | 145.5 | +327 / −327 | no move | Matchup | |
| Pirates at Midshipmen | Midshipmen 79% | Midshipmen −10 | 143 | +379 / −379 | no move | Matchup | |
| Leopards at Bonnies | Bonnies 80% | Bonnies −10 | 146.5 | +388 / −388 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lancers at Monarchs | Monarchs 65% | Monarchs −5 | 143.5 | +182 / −182 | total 145.5 → 143.5, home 64% → 65% | Matchup | |
| Jackrabbits at Bears neutral site | Bears 61% | Bears −4 | 145.5 | +154 / −154 | no move | Matchup | |
| Thunderbirds at Demon Deacons | Demon Deacons 80% | Demon Deacons −10 | 145.5 | +388 / −388 | home 79% → 80% | Matchup | |
| Rockets at Titans | Titans 58% | Titans −3.5 | 145.5 | +139 / −139 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cowboys at Pioneers | Pioneers 54% | Pioneers −2.5 | 145.5 | +117 / −117 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spartans at Fighting Camels | Fighting Camels 77% | Fighting Camels −9 | 146 | +336 / −336 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Golden Grizzlies | Golden Grizzlies 56% | Golden Grizzlies −3 | 145.5 | +129 / −129 | no move | Matchup | |
| Trailblazers at Golden Bears | Golden Bears 73% | Golden Bears −8 | 145.5 | +275 / −275 | no move | Matchup | |
| Buffaloes at Friars | Friars 63% | Friars −4.5 | 145.5 | +169 / −169 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaspers at Dolphins | Dolphins 66% | Dolphins −5.5 | 147 | +195 / −195 | no move | Matchup | |
| Thundering Herd at Penguins | Penguins 66% | Penguins −5.5 | 147 | +191 / −191 | no move | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 69% | Bulldogs −6.5 | 145.5 | +217 / −217 | home 68% → 69% | Matchup | |
| Jaguars at Mean Green | Mean Green 70% | Mean Green −7 | 145.5 | +236 / −236 | no move | Matchup | |
| Quakers at Hawks | Hawks 71% | Hawks −7 | 145.5 | +244 / −244 | home 70% → 71% | Matchup | |
| Governors at Shockers | Shockers 74% | Shockers −8 | 145.5 | +285 / −285 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Saints | Saints 81% | Saints −10.5 | 143.5 | +417 / −417 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bison at Wildcats | Wildcats 66% | Wildcats −5.5 | 144 | +197 / −197 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bisons at Catamounts | Catamounts 63% | Catamounts −5 | 146 | +171 / −171 | no move | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Stags | Stags 76% | Stags −9 | 145.5 | +320 / −320 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vaqueros at Mavericks | Mavericks 60% | Mavericks −4 | 145.5 | +152 / −152 | no move | Matchup | |
| Broncs at Wildcats | Wildcats 89% | Wildcats −15 | 146 | +828 / −828 | no move | Matchup | |
| Blazers at Gamecocks | Gamecocks 59% | Gamecocks −3.5 | 145.5 | +143 / −143 | no move | Matchup | |
| Ragin' Cajuns at Seahawks | Seahawks 84% | Seahawks −12 | 145.5 | +527 / −527 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Yellow Jackets | Yellow Jackets 61% | Yellow Jackets −4.5 | 147 | +159 / −159 | no move | Matchup | |
| Huskies at Utes | Utes 52% | Utes −2 | 146 | +107 / −107 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wolves at Buccaneers | Buccaneers 70% | Buccaneers −6.5 | 146.5 | +231 / −231 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bearcats at Dukes | Dukes 83% | Dukes −12 | 146 | +500 / −500 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bearcats at Flyers | Flyers 68% | Flyers −6 | 144.5 | +210 / −210 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaguars at Eagles | Eagles 78% | Eagles −9.5 | 145.5 | +348 / −348 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Colonels | Colonels 54% | Colonels −2.5 | 145.5 | +119 / −119 | no move | Matchup | |
| Demons at Trojans | Trojans 68% | Trojans −6 | 146.5 | +208 / −208 | no move | Matchup | |
| Aggies at Hornets | Hornets 51% | Hornets −1.5 | 145.5 | +103 / −103 | no move | Matchup | |
| Warhawks at Lopes | Lopes 93% | Lopes −17.5 | 150 | +1246 / −1246 | no move | Matchup | |
| Paladins at Bruins | Bruins 72% | Bruins −7.5 | 145.5 | +256 / −256 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bengals at Redhawks | Redhawks 80% | Redhawks −10 | 146 | +390 / −390 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lobos at Broncos | Broncos 67% | Broncos −6 | 148 | +207 / −207 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wolverines at Wolf Pack | Wolf Pack 64% | Wolf Pack −5 | 145.5 | +181 / −181 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 59 of 59
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 59 of 59
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 59 of 59
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 59 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 59 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 52 · unavailable for 7 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 59 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Saturday, November 14: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.