NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Monday, November 16
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Monday, November 16
22 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves at Terrapins | Terrapins 81% | Terrapins −11 | 148 | +439 / −439 | no move | Matchup | |
| Gaels at Retrievers | Retrievers 72% | Retrievers −7.5 | 142 | +251 / −251 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Buckeyes | Buckeyes 79% | Buckeyes −10 | 145.5 | +386 / −386 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Cowboys | Cowboys 63% | Cowboys −5 | 145.5 | +171 / −171 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Tigers | Tigers 89% | Tigers −15 | 145 | +849 / −849 | no move | Matchup | |
| Colonels at Golden Flashes | Golden Flashes 79% | Golden Flashes −10 | 145.5 | +368 / −368 | spread −9.5 → −10 | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Wildcats | Wildcats 85% | Wildcats −12.5 | 147.5 | +577 / −577 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dolphins at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 82% | Bulldogs −11 | 145.5 | +448 / −448 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spiders at Hokies | Hokies 72% | Hokies −7.5 | 148 | +254 / −254 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tommies at Sharks | Sharks 55% | Sharks −2.5 | 146 | +121 / −121 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hilltoppers at Golden Hurricane | Golden Hurricane 76% | Golden Hurricane −9 | 145.5 | +320 / −320 | no move | Matchup | |
| Texans at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 73% | Bulldogs −8 | 145.5 | +274 / −274 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wildcats at Bears | Bears 71% | Bears −7 | 145.5 | +243 / −243 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Wildcats | Wildcats 75% | Wildcats −8.5 | 146.5 | +297 / −297 | no move | Matchup | |
| Grizzlies at Wildcats | Wildcats 62% | Wildcats −4.5 | 145.5 | +166 / −166 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Fighting Hawks | Fighting Hawks 57% | Fighting Hawks −3 | 145.5 | +134 / −134 | no move | Matchup | |
| Leathernecks at Golden Gophers | Golden Gophers 86% | Golden Gophers −13 | 144 | +600 / −600 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Aggies | Aggies 85% | Aggies −12.5 | 145.5 | +550 / −550 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Beavers | Beavers 78% | Beavers −9.5 | 146 | +356 / −356 | no move | Matchup | |
| Beach at Bruins | Bruins 88% | Bruins −14 | 145 | +734 / −734 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Gaels | Gaels 82% | Gaels −11 | 145.5 | +444 / −444 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Tritons | Tritons 81% | Tritons −10.5 | 145.5 | +425 / −425 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 22 of 22
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 22 of 22
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 21 of 22 · unavailable for 1 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 22 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 22 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 19 · unavailable for 3 (A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored; No venue coordinates stored for the home side)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 22 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Monday, November 16: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.