NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Sunday, November 15
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Sunday, November 15
34 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos at Cornhuskers neutral site | Cornhuskers 62% | Cornhuskers −4.5 | 145.5 | +164 / −164 | no move | Matchup | |
| Raiders at Blue Hens | Blue Hens 57% | Blue Hens −3 | 145.5 | +134 / −134 | no move | Matchup | |
| Big Green at Terriers | Terriers 68% | Terriers −6.5 | 147 | +216 / −216 | no move | Matchup | |
| Crimson at Eagles | Eagles 54% | Eagles −2.5 | 145.5 | +119 / −119 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cardinals at Tigers | Cardinals 53% | Tigers −0.5 | 147 | −113 / +113 | no move | Matchup | |
| Purple Eagles at Cyclones | Cyclones 91% | Cyclones −16 | 145.5 | +982 / −982 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spartans at Panthers | Panthers 57% | Panthers −3 | 145.5 | +130 / −130 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bobcats at Blue Devils | Blue Devils 55% | Blue Devils −2.5 | 144.5 | +123 / −123 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wildcats at Eagles | Eagles 74% | Eagles −8 | 141 | +285 / −285 | no move | Matchup | |
| Roadrunners at Bison | Bison 88% | Bison −14.5 | 145.5 | +748 / −748 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Rams | Rams 71% | Rams −7 | 145.5 | +239 / −239 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Cougars | Cougars 80% | Cougars −10.5 | 145.5 | +406 / −406 | no move | Matchup | |
| Owls at Explorers | Explorers 53% | Explorers −2 | 144 | +115 / −115 | no move | Matchup | |
| Great Danes at Crusaders | Crusaders 58% | Crusaders −3.5 | 145.5 | +138 / −138 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tribe at Wolverines | Wolverines 90% | Wolverines −15 | 145.5 | +853 / −853 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Golden Eagles neutral site | Golden Eagles 51% | Golden Eagles −1.5 | 144.5 | +104 / −104 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Longhorns neutral site | Longhorns 60% | Longhorns −4 | 148 | +152 / −152 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 72% | Bulldogs −7.5 | 145.5 | +251 / −251 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bluejays at Hawkeyes neutral site | Hawkeyes 65% | Hawkeyes −5.5 | 143.5 | +185 / −185 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Billikens | Billikens 64% | Billikens −5 | 145 | +177 / −177 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mastodons at Panthers | Panthers 57% | Panthers −3 | 146 | +132 / −132 | no move | Matchup | |
| Aggies at Aztecs neutral site | Aztecs 69% | Aztecs −6.5 | 145.5 | +224 / −224 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Lions | Lions 78% | Lions −9.5 | 145.5 | +349 / −349 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lakers at Dukes | Dukes 72% | Dukes −7.5 | 145 | +263 / −263 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chargers at Nittany Lions | Nittany Lions 69% | Nittany Lions −6.5 | 145 | +220 / −220 | no move | Matchup | |
| Waves at Ducks | Ducks 79% | Ducks −10 | 148.5 | +373 / −373 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Griffins at Bulls | Bulls 75% | Bulls −8.5 | 147 | +298 / −298 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mustangs at Bobcats | Bobcats 70% | Bobcats −6.5 | 145.5 | +228 / −228 | no move | Matchup | |
| Orange at Red Storm | Red Storm 86% | Red Storm −13 | 144 | +603 / −603 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Lions at Trojans | Trojans 79% | Trojans −10 | 148.5 | +377 / −377 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chanticleers at Badgers | Badgers 83% | Badgers −12 | 145 | +504 / −504 | no move | Matchup | |
| Rattlers at Miners | Miners 64% | Miners −5 | 149.5 | +174 / −174 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bobcats at Roadrunners | Bobcats 59% | Bobcats −1 | 145.5 | −144 / +144 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hornets at Spartans | Spartans 71% | Spartans −7 | 149 | +248 / −248 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 34 of 34
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 34 of 34
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 34 of 34
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 34 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 34 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 24 · unavailable for 10 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 34 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Sunday, November 15: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.