Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers prediction, odds and picks, November 15, 2026
- Projected winnerLouisville 53%
- Model spreadMemphis −0.5 total 147
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Louisville Cardinals or Memphis Tigers: the bandwagon
Axle 53–47Market –
Louisville Cardinals at Memphis Tigers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LOU– | MEM– |
| Average win probability | LOU– | MEM– |
| Longest scoring run | LOU– | MEM– |
| Time leading | LOU– | MEM– |
Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MEM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:08 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 2:23 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 47% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 48% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | — |
- Ratings
- MEM 1506 · LOU 1636
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Louisville Cardinals vs Memphis Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cardinals the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread is Tigers −0.5. The model total is 147. Ratings: Tigers 1506 (167th of 361), Cardinals 1636 (28th). The Tigers are 0-0; the Cardinals are 0-0. The Tigers have won 2 of their last 5; the Cardinals 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Tigers won 0, the Cardinals 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Louisville Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chattanooga Mocs | W 84–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan State Spartans | L 69–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Florida Bulls | W 83–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami Hurricanes | L 73–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SMU Mustangs | W 62–58 | – | – | matchup |
Memphis Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Iowa State Cyclones | W 80–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulane Green Wave | L 69–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | W 96–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Florida Bulls | L 89–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at East Carolina Pirates | L 68–84 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Tigers at Louisville Cardinals | 73–99 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Louisville Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Memphis Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinals0-0 8th · -
- Cardinals rating1636 28th of 361, 1 games
- Tigers0-0 4th · -
- Tigers rating1506 167th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak -
No stances yet today on $LOUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Louisville Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Memphis Tigers 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak -
No stances yet today on $MEMMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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