NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Monday, November 9
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Monday, November 9
34 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs at Cougars | Cougars 59% | Cougars −3.5 | 145.5 | +141 / −141 | no move | Matchup | |
| Thundering Herd at Buckeyes | Buckeyes 75% | Buckeyes −8.5 | 149 | +302 / −302 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bison at Quakers | Quakers 65% | Quakers −5 | 145.5 | +183 / −183 | no move | Matchup | |
| Orange at Hoosiers neutral site | Hoosiers 60% | Hoosiers −4 | 144.5 | +148 / −148 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Falcons | Falcons 79% | Falcons −10 | 147 | +377 / −377 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Fighting Irish | Fighting Irish 76% | Fighting Irish −8.5 | 145.5 | +312 / −312 | no move | Matchup | |
| Eagles at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 78% | Bulldogs −9.5 | 149 | +348 / −348 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Longhorns | Longhorns 84% | Longhorns −12.5 | 150 | +540 / −540 | spread −12 → −12.5 | Matchup | |
| Roos at Dolphins | Dolphins 82% | Dolphins −11 | 145.5 | +441 / −441 | no move | Matchup | |
| Sharks at Tigers | Tigers 67% | Tigers −6 | 145.5 | +204 / −204 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Gophers at Bearcats | Bearcats 76% | Bearcats −8.5 | 143.5 | +310 / −310 | no move | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Volunteers | Volunteers 87% | Volunteers −13.5 | 145 | +653 / −653 | no move | Matchup | |
| Skyhawks at Lions | Lions 72% | Lions −7.5 | 145.5 | +254 / −254 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spartans at Flames | Flames 76% | Flames −8.5 | 145.5 | +309 / −309 | no move | Matchup | |
| Fighting Hawks at Tigers | Tigers 85% | Tigers −12.5 | 145.5 | +548 / −548 | no move | Matchup | |
| Ospreys at Hurricanes | Hurricanes 85% | Hurricanes −13 | 144.5 | +585 / −585 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spartans at Chanticleers | Chanticleers 75% | Chanticleers −8.5 | 145.5 | +298 / −298 | no move | Matchup | |
| Seahawks at Huskies | Huskies 91% | Huskies −16 | 142.5 | +991 / −991 | no move | Matchup | |
| Rattlers at Blazers | Blazers 77% | Blazers −9 | 151 | +336 / −336 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 77% | Bulldogs −9.5 | 147 | +342 / −342 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Grizzlies at Crimson Tide | Crimson Tide 84% | Crimson Tide −12.5 | 148 | +542 / −542 | no move | Matchup | |
| Terriers at Wildcats | Wildcats 72% | Wildcats −7.5 | 148 | +251 / −251 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Tigers | Tigers 64% | Tigers −5 | 147.5 | +174 / −174 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Tigers | Tigers 74% | Tigers −8 | 145.5 | +289 / −289 | no move | Matchup | |
| Warhawks at Aggies | Aggies 91% | Aggies −16.5 | 148 | +1026 / −1026 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Sooners | Sooners 82% | Sooners −11.5 | 145 | +471 / −471 | no move | Matchup | |
| Redbirds at Boilermakers | Boilermakers 79% | Boilermakers −10 | 148.5 | +387 / −387 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Blue Demons | Blue Demons 72% | Blue Demons −7.5 | 145.5 | +255 / −255 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mountaineers at Tigers | Tigers 73% | Tigers −7.5 | 145.5 | +265 / −265 | no move | Matchup | |
| Eagles at Beavers | Beavers 71% | Beavers −7 | 146.5 | +243 / −243 | no move | Matchup | |
| Pirates at 49ers neutral site | Pirates 57% | Pirates −0.5 | 142.5 | −134 / +134 | no move | Matchup | |
| Delta Devils at Huskies | Huskies 91% | Huskies −16.5 | 145.5 | +1021 / −1021 | no move | Matchup | |
| Owls at Cardinal | Cardinal 78% | Cardinal −9.5 | 145.5 | +361 / −361 | no move | Matchup | |
| Pilots at Rainbow Warriors | Rainbow Warriors 73% | Rainbow Warriors −8 | 145.5 | +274 / −274 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 34 of 34
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 34 of 34
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 33 of 34 · unavailable for 1 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 34 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 34 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 26 · unavailable for 8 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 34 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Monday, November 9: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.