Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction, odds and picks, November 9, 2026
- Projected winnerPurdue 79%
- Projected scorePurdue 79, Illinois State 69
- Model spreadPurdue −10 total 148.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Illinois State Redbirds or Purdue Boilermakers: the bandwagon
Axle 21–79Market –
Illinois State Redbirds at Purdue Boilermakers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ILST | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ILST– | PUR– |
| Average win probability | ILST– | PUR– |
| Longest scoring run | ILST– | PUR– |
| Time leading | ILST– | PUR– |
Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PUR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 79% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 80% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 84% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 84% | +19 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- PUR 1672 · ILST 1555
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:25 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Boilermakers a 10-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 148.5. Ratings: Boilermakers 1672 (12th of 361), Redbirds 1555 (84th). The Boilermakers are 0-1; the Redbirds are 0-1. The Boilermakers have won 4 of their last 5; the Redbirds 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Illinois State Redbirds
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Saint Mary's Gaels | L 85–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 66–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dayton Flyers | W 61–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | W 78–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 79–58 | – | – | matchup |
Purdue Boilermakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | W 78–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 64–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Longhorns | W 79–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Miami Hurricanes | W 79–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | W 80–72 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Illinois State Redbirds: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Purdue Boilermakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Redbirds0-1 9th · L1
- Redbirds rating1555 84th of 361, 1 games
- Boilermakers0-1 18th · L1
- Boilermakers rating1672 12th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ILSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois State Redbirds bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 18th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $PURMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Boilermakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Illinois State Redbirds at Purdue Boilermakers
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Model: Purdue 79% to win. Projected score Purdue 79, Illinois State 69; spread Purdue −10, total 148.5. Illinois State Redbirds at Purdue Boilermakers, Mon, Nov 9, 8:30 PM ET.