Illinois State Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreIllinois State 85, Saint Mary's 90 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSaint Mary's 77%
- Pregame Projected scoreSaint Mary's 77, Illinois State 68
- Model spreadSaint Mary's −9 total 145.5
- Margin5 projected 9
- Total175 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Illinois State Redbirds or Saint Mary's Gaels: the bandwagon
Axle 23–77Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILST | 39 | 38 | 8 | 85 |
| SMC | 33 | 44 | 13 | 90 |
Illinois State Redbirds at Saint Mary's Gaels win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ILST | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ILST28/58 | SMC34/68 |
| 3-pointers | ILST13/27 | SMC4/17 |
| Free throws | ILST16/23 | SMC18/26 |
| Rebounds | ILST33 | SMC41 |
| Assists | ILST20 | SMC18 |
| Turnovers | ILST18 | SMC11 |
| Steals | ILST5 | SMC12 |
| Blocks | ILST0 | SMC2 |
| Points in the paint | ILST24 | SMC54 |
| Fast-break points | ILST15 | SMC15 |
| Fouls | ILST21 | SMC20 |
| Largest lead | ILST10 | SMC7 |
Illinois State Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ILST | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ILST85 | SMC90 |
| Average win probability | ILST45% | SMC55% |
| Longest scoring run | ILST+5 | SMC+5 |
| Time leading | ILST22:48 | SMC10:14 |
Illinois State Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SMC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 77% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 80% | +15 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- SMC 1652 · ILST 1560
- Home spread
- −9
- Stored
- Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET · 2026-11-03 05:30 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Illinois State Redbirds 85, Saint Mary's Gaels 90. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Illinois State Redbirds vs Saint Mary's Gaels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gaels a 9-point favorite at home, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Gaels 1657 (17th of 361), Redbirds 1555 (84th). The Gaels are 1-0; the Redbirds are 0-1. The Gaels have won 3 of their last 5; the Redbirds 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Illinois State Redbirds
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Saint Mary's Gaels | L 85–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 66–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dayton Flyers | W 61–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | W 78–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | W 79–58 | – | – | matchup |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Illinois State Redbirds | W 90–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas A&M Aggies | L 50–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Santa Clara Broncos | L 71–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | W 70–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Santa Clara Broncos | W 86–67 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Illinois State Redbirds: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Saint Mary's Gaels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Redbirds0-1 9th · L1
- Redbirds rating1555 84th of 361, 1 games
- Gaels1-0 3rd · W1
- Gaels rating1657 17th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ILSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois State Redbirds bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SMCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Saint Mary's Gaels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Illinois State 85, Saint Mary's 90. Bandwagon's model had the Saint Mary's at 77% and projected Saint Mary's 77, Illinois State 68; spread Saint Mary's −9, total 145.5.