NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Wednesday, November 4
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Wednesday, November 4
9 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knights at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 78% | Bulldogs −9.5 | 148 | +360 / −360 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lancers at Hawks | Hawks 76% | Hawks −9 | 145.5 | +325 / −325 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hawks at Panthers | Panthers 91% | Panthers −16 | 144 | +987 / −987 | no move | Matchup | |
| Matadors at Shockers | Shockers 75% | Shockers −8.5 | 145.5 | +306 / −306 | no move | Matchup | |
| Norse at Coyotes | Coyotes 54% | Coyotes −2.5 | 145.5 | +119 / −119 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Tigers | Tigers 85% | Tigers −12.5 | 145.5 | +579 / −579 | no move | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Golden Bears | Golden Bears 74% | Golden Bears −8 | 145.5 | +289 / −289 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Broncos | Broncos 87% | Broncos −13.5 | 147.5 | +679 / −679 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bison at Gaels | Gaels 75% | Gaels −8.5 | 145.5 | +297 / −297 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 9 of 9
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 9 of 9
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 3 of 9 · unavailable for 6 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 9 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 9 (No injury list read before this game)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 7 · unavailable for 2 (A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 9 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Wednesday, November 4: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.