NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Thursday, November 5
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Thursday, November 5
43 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys at Mean Green | Cowboys 52% | Mean Green −1 | 145.5 | −107 / +107 | no move | Matchup | |
| Knights at Hoosiers | Hoosiers 80% | Hoosiers −10.5 | 145 | +399 / −399 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Cardinals | Cardinals 69% | Cardinals −6.5 | 148 | +227 / −227 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mocs at Nittany Lions | Nittany Lions 65% | Nittany Lions −5 | 147 | +183 / −183 | no move | Matchup | |
| Demon Deacons at Commodores | Commodores 81% | Commodores −10.5 | 145 | +414 / −414 | no move | Matchup | |
| Sharks at Pirates | Pirates 71% | Pirates −7 | 141.5 | +244 / −244 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bearcats at Peacocks | Peacocks 80% | Peacocks −10 | 142.5 | +394 / −394 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Bobcats | Bobcats 78% | Bobcats −9.5 | 147 | +363 / −363 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulls at Panthers | Panthers 72% | Panthers −7.5 | 147 | +259 / −259 | no move | Matchup | |
| Blue Devils at Orange | Orange 73% | Orange −7.5 | 142.5 | +266 / −266 | no move | Matchup | |
| Big Red at Mountain Hawks | Mountain Hawks 51% | Mountain Hawks −1.5 | 148.5 | +104 / −104 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hornets at Midshipmen | Midshipmen 85% | Midshipmen −12.5 | 145.5 | +571 / −571 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at 49ers | 49ers 77% | 49ers −9 | 146 | +339 / −339 | no move | Matchup | |
| Phoenix at Bearcats | Bearcats 80% | Bearcats −10.5 | 145.5 | +407 / −407 | no move | Matchup | |
| Pride at Tigers | Pride 53% | Tigers −0.5 | 145.5 | −111 / +111 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bison at Braves | Bison 60% | Bison −1.5 | 145.5 | −152 / +152 | no move | Matchup | |
| Black Bears at Pioneers | Pioneers 77% | Pioneers −9.5 | 145.5 | +343 / −343 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lakers at Fighting Irish | Fighting Irish 69% | Fighting Irish −6.5 | 143.5 | +227 / −227 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Hokies | Hokies 69% | Hokies −6.5 | 145.5 | +225 / −225 | no move | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Gaels | Gaels 76% | Gaels −8.5 | 142.5 | +312 / −312 | no move | Matchup | |
| Great Danes at Jaspers | Jaspers 63% | Jaspers −4.5 | 145.5 | +170 / −170 | no move | Matchup | |
| Retrievers at Red Foxes | Red Foxes 60% | Red Foxes −4 | 143.5 | +147 / −147 | no move | Matchup | |
| River Hawks at Warriors | Warriors 76% | Warriors −9 | 145.5 | +325 / −325 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wildcats at Broncs | Broncs 58% | Broncs −3.5 | 143.5 | +137 / −137 | no move | Matchup | |
| Catamounts at Stags | Stags 61% | Stags −4.5 | 145.5 | +158 / −158 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Green Wave | Green Wave 74% | Green Wave −8 | 147.5 | +284 / −284 | no move | Matchup | |
| Demons at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 77% | Bulldogs −9.5 | 150 | +342 / −342 | no move | Matchup | |
| Skyhawks at Rams | Rams 75% | Rams −8.5 | 145.5 | +295 / −295 | no move | Matchup | |
| Chanticleers at Blue Devils | Blue Devils 92% | Blue Devils −17 | 144 | +1120 / −1120 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lions at Owls | Owls 70% | Owls −7 | 145.5 | +235 / −235 | no move | Matchup | |
| Runnin' Bulldogs at Longhorns | Longhorns 91% | Longhorns −16 | 146 | +957 / −957 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dolphins at Gators | Gators 91% | Gators −16 | 145.5 | +986 / −986 | no move | Matchup | |
| Gamecocks at Jaguars | Jaguars 67% | Jaguars −6 | 145.5 | +204 / −204 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dolphins at Bluejays | Bluejays 79% | Bluejays −10 | 147 | +384 / −384 | no move | Matchup | |
| Huskies at Golden Hurricane | Golden Hurricane 89% | Golden Hurricane −15 | 145.5 | +816 / −816 | no move | Matchup | |
| Rockets at Spartans | Spartans 82% | Spartans −11 | 146 | +459 / −459 | no move | Matchup | |
| Keydets at Mustangs | Mustangs 90% | Mustangs −15 | 145.5 | +852 / −852 | home 89% → 90% | Matchup | |
| Wolves at Ramblers | Ramblers 69% | Ramblers −6.5 | 143 | +227 / −227 | no move | Matchup | |
| Quakers at Fighting Illini | Fighting Illini 84% | Fighting Illini −12 | 145.5 | +515 / −515 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulls at Blue Demons | Bulls 56% | Bulls −0.5 | 146.5 | −127 / +127 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wildcats at Red Raiders | Red Raiders 82% | Red Raiders −11 | 143.5 | +449 / −449 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Utes | Utes 52% | Utes −2 | 145 | +108 / −108 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mustangs at Wildcats | Wildcats 89% | Wildcats −15 | 145.5 | +811 / −811 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 43 of 43
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 43 of 43
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 26 of 43 · unavailable for 17 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 43 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 43 (No injury list read before this game)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 36 · unavailable for 7 (A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored; No venue coordinates stored for the home side)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 43 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Thursday, November 5: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.