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NCAA Men's Basketball · · Moody Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns prediction, odds and picks, November 5, 2026

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs or Texas Longhorns: the bandwagon

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Axle 9–91Market –

Scheduled · Pregame: TEX 91%
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Record 1-0
Game clock
KickoffThursday, November 5 at 8:00 PM ET
Situation
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Possession
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Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns win probability

Bandwagon's model
No read of the live source is stored for this game.
0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:00
0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:00

The in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

Momentum–Starts with the game.
Big swing–Starts with the game.
Clutch window–Starts with the game.
Baseline–Starts with the game.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns live stats

From the league's public game summary

Team statistics appear once the game starts.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns team breakdown

From the stored in-game series (none for this game)
Team breakdown
StatGWEBTEX
ScoreGWEB–TEX–
Average win probabilityGWEB–TEX–
Longest scoring runGWEB–TEX–
Time leadingGWEB–TEX–

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 5 h ago
Runnin' Bulldogs9%
Win chance
Longhorns91%
SpreadTEX −16
Total146
Moneyline+959away / −959homeaway / home
Line movementTEX win chance, 50 stored lines
+26 pts for TEX since Oct 29
99%60%
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: TEX 65%Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET: TEX 94%Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET: TEX 94%Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET: TEX 94%Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET: TEX 90%Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET: TEX 90%Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET: TEX 91%Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET: TEX 91%
Oct 29Nov 1Now
Every stored line
StoredTEX winMove
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET91%0
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET91%0
Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET91%0
Nov 4, 9:25 PM ET91%0
Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET91%0
Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET91%0
Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET91%0
Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET91%0
Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET91%0
Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET91%0
Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET91%0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET91%0
Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET91%0
Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET91%0
Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET91%0
Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET91%0
Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET91%0
Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET91%0
Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET91%+1
Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET90%0
Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET90%0
Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET90%0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET90%0
Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET90%0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET90%−4
Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET94%0
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET94%0
Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET94%+29
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET65%—
Ratings
TEX 1594 · GWEB 1322
Home spread
−16
Stored
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:01 UTC
Version
Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
  • Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
  • Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · no picks yet

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Runnin' BulldogsLonghorns
Neutrals only–
Change your pick any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Bandwagon minus model, Longhorns–

No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Longhorns a 16-point favorite at home, with a 91% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Longhorns 1594 (51st of 361), Runnin' Bulldogs 1322 (356th). The Longhorns are 1-0; the Runnin' Bulldogs are 0-1. The Longhorns have won 4 of their last 5; the Runnin' Bulldogs 1 of their last 5.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at UConn HuskiesL 46–86––matchup
at High Point PanthersL 59–81––matchup
at South Carolina Upstate SpartansW 65–64––matchup
at South Carolina Upstate SpartansL 61–71––matchup
vs UNC Asheville BulldogsL 71–77––matchup

Texas Longhorns

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Chicago State CougarsW 109–59––matchup
at Purdue BoilermakersL 77–79––matchup
at Gonzaga BulldogsW 74–68––matchup
at BYU CougarsW 79–71––matchup
at NC State WolfpackW 68–66––matchup

Head-to-head

No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.

Injuries

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Texas Longhorns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Runnin' Bulldogs0-1 4th · L1
  • Runnin' Bulldogs rating1322 356th of 361, 1 games
  • Longhorns1-0 12th · W1
  • Longhorns rating1594 51st of 361, 1 games

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 0-1

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak L1

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No stances yet today on $GWEBMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

Runnin' Bulldogs roster, schedule and more

Texas Longhorns 1-0

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak W1

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TEXMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TEXMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TEXMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $TEXMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas Longhorns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

Longhorns roster, schedule and more

Takes on Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns

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Model: Texas 91% to win. Projected score Texas 81, Gardner-Webb 65; spread Texas −16, total 146. Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns, Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM ET.