Mercyhurst Lakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction, odds and picks, November 5, 2026
- Projected winnerNotre Dame 69%
- Projected scoreNotre Dame 75, Mercyhurst 68
- Model spreadNotre Dame −6.5 total 143.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mercyhurst Lakers or Notre Dame Fighting Irish: the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market –
Mercyhurst Lakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MERC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MERC– | ND– |
| Average win probability | MERC– | ND– |
| Longest scoring run | MERC– | ND– |
| Time leading | MERC– | ND– |
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ND win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:08 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:15 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 69% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET | 67% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 68% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 66% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 67% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- ND 1481 · MERC 1450
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Fighting Irish a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 143.5. Ratings: Fighting Irish 1481 (208th of 361), Lakers 1450 (252nd). The Fighting Irish are 1-0; the Lakers are 0-1. The Fighting Irish have won 2 of their last 5; the Lakers 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Marquette Golden Eagles | L 43–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Long Island University Sharks | L 70–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stonehill Skyhawks | W 56–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 70–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stonehill Skyhawks | W 75–72 | – | – | matchup |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Villanova Wildcats | W 74–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston College Eagles | L 69–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | L 78–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NC State Wolfpack | W 96–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Duke Blue Devils | L 56–100 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Mercyhurst Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lakers0-1 7th · L1
- Lakers rating1450 252nd of 361, 1 games
- Fighting Irish1-0 10th · W1
- Fighting Irish rating1481 208th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MERCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercyhurst Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $NDMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Notre Dame 69% to win. Projected score Notre Dame 75, Mercyhurst 68; spread Notre Dame −6.5, total 143.5. Mercyhurst Lakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ET.