Villanova and Notre Dame are tied 5-5 with 17:08 left in the first period, so the score alone tells us nothing yet. The model gives Villanova a 70% chance at home, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Finneran Pavilion · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreNotre Dame 74, Villanova 72 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerVillanova 70%
- Pregame Projected scoreVillanova 76, Notre Dame 69
- Model spreadVillanova −7 total 145.5
- Margin2 projected 7
- Total146 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Notre Dame Fighting Irish or Villanova Wildcats: the bandwagon
Axle 30–70Market –
FinalPregame: VILL 70%Baseline: VILL 80.8% (+10.8)Big swing: 51.6 ptsClutch window: 9:04
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 31 | 43 | 74 |
| VILL | 35 | 35 | 72 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Villanova Wildcats win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to ND−84.4 points for VILL over the last 5:00
Big swing51.6 ptstoward ND at 39:12 of game time
Clutch window9:04within 5 points in the final half
BaselineVILL 80.8%game average, +10.8 points from the pregame 70.1%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ND | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ND23/65 | VILL24/52 |
| 3-pointers | ND9/24 | VILL11/31 |
| Free throws | ND19/25 | VILL13/18 |
| Rebounds | ND37 | VILL37 |
| Assists | ND14 | VILL12 |
| Turnovers | ND11 | VILL20 |
| Steals | ND14 | VILL6 |
| Blocks | ND2 | VILL4 |
| Points in the paint | ND22 | VILL18 |
| Fast-break points | ND9 | VILL10 |
| Fouls | ND19 | VILL17 |
| Largest lead | ND4 | VILL10 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ND | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ND74 | VILL72 |
| Average win probability | ND19% | VILL81% |
| Longest scoring run | ND+6 | VILL+9 |
| Time leading | ND3:04 | VILL35:11 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET
Fighting Irish30%
Win chanceWildcats70%
SpreadVILL −7closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+234away / −234homeaway / home
Line movementVILL win chance, 6 stored lines
+20 pts for VILL between Oct 29 and Nov 1
76%45%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | VILL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 70% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 68% | +18 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- VILL 1596 · ND 1474
- Home spread
- −7 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:02 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −6 → −7, home 68% → 70%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 74, Villanova Wildcats 72. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Fighting IrishWildcats
Neutrals only–
Fighting IrishWildcats
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Wildcats–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Wildcats a 7-point favorite, with a 70% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Wildcats 1588 (57th of 361), Fighting Irish 1481 (208th). The Wildcats are 0-1; the Fighting Irish are 1-0. The Wildcats have won 2 of their last 5; the Fighting Irish 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Villanova Wildcats | W 74–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston College Eagles | L 69–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | L 78–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs NC State Wolfpack | W 96–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Duke Blue Devils | L 56–100 | – | – | matchup |
Villanova Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 72–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah State Aggies | L 76–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgetown Hoyas | L 64–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Xavier Musketeers | W 91–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at DePaul Blue Demons | W 76–57 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Villanova Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fighting Irish1-0 10th · W1
- Fighting Irish rating1481 208th of 361, 1 games
- Wildcats0-1 11th · L1
- Wildcats rating1588 57th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak W1
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NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $VILLMBB
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