NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Sunday, November 8
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Sunday, November 8
29 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaels at Red Storm | Red Storm 87% | Red Storm −13.5 | 142 | +641 / −641 | no move | Matchup | |
| Razorbacks at Cavaliers neutral site | Cavaliers 52% | Cavaliers −2 | 147.5 | +110 / −110 | no move | Matchup | |
| Stags at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 53% | Bulldogs −2 | 145.5 | +114 / −114 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaspers at Black Bears | Black Bears 62% | Black Bears −4.5 | 144.5 | +160 / −160 | no move | Matchup | |
| Red Foxes at River Hawks | River Hawks 60% | River Hawks −4 | 145.5 | +150 / −150 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Saints | Saints 75% | Saints −8.5 | 145.5 | +299 / −299 | no move | Matchup | |
| Redhawks at Gamecocks | Gamecocks 63% | Gamecocks −4.5 | 146.5 | +167 / −167 | no move | Matchup | |
| Pioneers at Wildcats | Wildcats 54% | Wildcats −2.5 | 145.5 | +117 / −117 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bears at Mountain Hawks | Mountain Hawks 70% | Mountain Hawks −7 | 144 | +235 / −235 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Broncos | Broncos 75% | Broncos −8.5 | 145.5 | +301 / −301 | no move | Matchup | |
| Fighting Camels at Broncos | Broncos 55% | Broncos −2.5 | 142.5 | +122 / −122 | no move | Matchup | |
| Blue Devils at Big Green | Big Green 66% | Big Green −5.5 | 142.5 | +198 / −198 | no move | Matchup | |
| Phoenix at Tommies | Tommies 80% | Tommies −10.5 | 145.5 | +397 / −397 | no move | Matchup | |
| Warriors at Great Danes | Warriors 53% | Great Danes −0.5 | 145.5 | −113 / +113 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bobcats at Catamounts | Catamounts 66% | Catamounts −5.5 | 143.5 | +197 / −197 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bengals at Falcons | Falcons 50% | Falcons −1.5 | 148.5 | +101 / −101 | no move | Matchup | |
| Jaguars at Bulldogs | Bulldogs 69% | Bulldogs −6.5 | 145.5 | +221 / −221 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hilltoppers at Golden Eagles | Golden Eagles 51% | Golden Eagles −1.5 | 149 | +105 / −105 | no move | Matchup | |
| Broncs at Bearcats | Bearcats 67% | Bearcats −6 | 146 | +206 / −206 | no move | Matchup | |
| Peacocks at Highlanders | Highlanders 56% | Highlanders −3 | 142.5 | +126 / −126 | no move | Matchup | |
| Gaels at Wolf Pack neutral site | Gaels 58% | Gaels −0.5 | 147 | −136 / +136 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spiders at Owls neutral site | Owls 53% | Owls −2 | 146.5 | +115 / −115 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bison at Roadrunners | Bison 67% | Bison −3.5 | 145.5 | −207 / +207 | no move | Matchup | |
| Spartans at Tribe | Tribe 74% | Tribe −8 | 145.5 | +290 / −290 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cardinals at Miners | Miners 68% | Miners −6.5 | 147 | +215 / −215 | no move | Matchup | |
| Nittany Lions at Panthers neutral site | Panthers 60% | Panthers −4 | 146.5 | +150 / −150 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Golden Bears neutral site | Cougars 71% | Cougars −4.5 | 145.5 | −247 / +247 | no move | Matchup | |
| Trojans at Shockers neutral site | Shockers 64% | Shockers −5 | 145.5 | +177 / −177 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mavericks at Rainbow Warriors | Rainbow Warriors 70% | Rainbow Warriors −7 | 145.5 | +234 / −234 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 29 of 29
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 29 of 29
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 25 of 29 · unavailable for 4 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 29 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 29 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 19 · unavailable for 10 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 29 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Sunday, November 8: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.