NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Wednesday, November 11
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's NCAA Division I men's basketball predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NCAA Division I men's basketball odds Wednesday, November 11
46 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Lions at Bruins | Bruins 88% | Bruins −14.5 | 148.5 | +763 / −763 | no move | Matchup | |
| Knights at Lions | Lions 70% | Lions −7 | 146 | +233 / −233 | no move | Matchup | |
| Roos at Rattlers neutral site | Rattlers 72% | Rattlers −7.5 | 147.5 | +251 / −251 | home 71% → 72% | Matchup | |
| Big Green at Great Danes | Great Danes 60% | Great Danes −4 | 145.5 | +152 / −152 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cardinals at Aggies | Aggies 76% | Aggies −9 | 146.5 | +317 / −317 | no move | Matchup | |
| Hawks at Bulls neutral site | Bulls 62% | Bulls −4.5 | 148 | +162 / −162 | total 145.5 → 148, home 63% → 62% | Matchup | |
| Ramblers at Falcons | Ramblers 54% | Falcons −0.5 | 146.5 | −117 / +117 | no move | Matchup | |
| Aggies at Pirates | Pirates 71% | Pirates −7 | 145.5 | +239 / −239 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wildcats at Aztecs | Aztecs 80% | Aztecs −10 | 148.5 | +396 / −396 | no move | Matchup | |
| Quakers at Midshipmen | Midshipmen 66% | Midshipmen −5.5 | 145.5 | +195 / −195 | no move | Matchup | |
| Eagles at Keydets | Keydets 53% | Keydets −2 | 145.5 | +115 / −115 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Owls | Owls 58% | Owls −3.5 | 145.5 | +140 / −140 | no move | Matchup | |
| Eagles at Dragons | Dragons 67% | Dragons −6 | 144.5 | +203 / −203 | no move | Matchup | |
| Fighting Camels at Buccaneers | Buccaneers 71% | Buccaneers −7 | 145 | +247 / −247 | no move | Matchup | |
| Raiders at Red Storm | Red Storm 88% | Red Storm −14 | 147 | +721 / −721 | no move | Matchup | |
| Big Red at Bonnies | Bonnies 57% | Bonnies −3 | 148 | +131 / −131 | no move | Matchup | |
| Paladins at Crusaders | Paladins 62% | Paladins −2 | 147 | −163 / +163 | no move | Matchup | |
| Dukes at Blue Hens | Blue Hens 53% | Blue Hens −2 | 145.5 | +115 / −115 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Flashes at Seahawks | Seahawks 71% | Seahawks −7 | 145.5 | +247 / −247 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Eagles at Wolverines | Wolverines 89% | Wolverines −14.5 | 144 | +778 / −778 | no move | Matchup | |
| Panthers at Sycamores | Sycamores 68% | Sycamores −6.5 | 147 | +214 / −214 | spread −6 → −6.5, total 146.5 → 147, home 67% → 68% | Matchup | |
| Highlanders at Rams | Rams 91% | Rams −16 | 146.5 | +954 / −954 | no move | Matchup | |
| Monarchs at Spartans | Spartans 65% | Spartans −5.5 | 145.5 | +188 / −188 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Fighting Irish | Fighting Irish 73% | Fighting Irish −8 | 145.5 | +277 / −277 | no move | Matchup | |
| Peacocks at Gamecocks | Gamecocks 66% | Gamecocks −5.5 | 141.5 | +197 / −197 | no move | Matchup | |
| Seawolves at Tigers | Tigers 66% | Tigers −5.5 | 145.5 | +195 / −195 | no move | Matchup | |
| River Hawks at Minutemen | Minutemen 71% | Minutemen −7 | 145.5 | +249 / −249 | no move | Matchup | |
| Bulldogs at Wolves | Wolves 58% | Wolves −3.5 | 147 | +139 / −139 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tribe at Owls | Owls 67% | Owls −6 | 145.5 | +201 / −201 | no move | Matchup | |
| Waves at Bearkats | Bearkats 82% | Bearkats −11 | 149.5 | +450 / −450 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Golden Eagles | Golden Eagles 77% | Golden Eagles −9 | 145.5 | +334 / −334 | no move | Matchup | |
| Gamecocks at Cougars | Cougars 88% | Cougars −14 | 145.5 | +720 / −720 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Eagles at Golden Hurricane | Golden Hurricane 87% | Golden Hurricane −14 | 145.5 | +680 / −680 | no move | Matchup | |
| Colonials at Razorbacks | Razorbacks 81% | Razorbacks −10.5 | 146.5 | +428 / −428 | no move | Matchup | |
| Broncos at Mean Green | Broncos 51% | Mean Green −1 | 145.5 | −105 / +105 | home 50% → 49% | Matchup | |
| Beacons at Jackrabbits | Jackrabbits 59% | Jackrabbits −3.5 | 144 | +143 / −143 | no move | Matchup | |
| Mustangs at Lopes | Lopes 79% | Lopes −10 | 145.5 | +374 / −374 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wolf Pack at Gauchos | Gauchos 55% | Gauchos −2.5 | 145.5 | +123 / −123 | no move | Matchup | |
| Golden Grizzlies at Broncos | Broncos 75% | Broncos −8.5 | 145.5 | +301 / −301 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vikings at Rams | Rams 73% | Rams −7.5 | 145.5 | +264 / −264 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lumberjacks at Wildcats | Lumberjacks 58% | Lumberjacks −1 | 145.5 | −140 / +140 | no move | Matchup | |
| Cougars at Lancers | Lancers 84% | Lancers −12.5 | 146.5 | +543 / −543 | no move | Matchup | |
| Delta Devils at Ducks | Ducks 89% | Ducks −15 | 145.5 | +843 / −843 | no move | Matchup | |
| Tigers at Beach | Beach 54% | Beach −2.5 | 145.5 | +119 / −119 | no move | Matchup | |
| Roadrunners at Redhawks | Redhawks 85% | Redhawks −12.5 | 147.5 | +577 / −577 | no move | Matchup | |
| Trojans at Golden Bears | Golden Bears 68% | Golden Bears −6 | 147 | +214 / −214 | total 145.5 → 147, home 67% → 68% | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 46 of 46
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 46 of 46
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule used in 44 of 46 · unavailable for 2 (First game of a season for at least one side)
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form unavailable for 46 (Fewer than three games played this season by at least one side)
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 46 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 36 · unavailable for 10 (Neutral site; A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 46 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
NCAA Division I men's basketball team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan Wolverines | 1782 | 1 |
| 2 | Duke Blue Devils | 1766 | 1 |
| 3 | Arizona Wildcats | 1723 | 1 |
| 4 | Florida Gators | 1723 | 1 |
| 5 | Houston Cougars | 1703 | 1 |
| 6 | UConn Huskies | 1703 | 1 |
| 7 | St. John's Red Storm | 1702 | 1 |
| 8 | Gonzaga Bulldogs | 1702 | 1 |
| 9 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 1699 | 1 |
| 10 | Michigan State Spartans | 1684 | 1 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 1677 | 1 |
| 12 | Purdue Boilermakers | 1672 | 1 |
Top 12 of 361; every team's rating is on its page.
NCAA Division I men's basketball model record
Over 17026 NCAA Division I men's basketball games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 72% of the time, Brier score 0.186, mean spread error 9.723 points, mean total error 13.897. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for NCAA Division I men's basketball games Wednesday, November 11: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.