Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits prediction, odds and picks, November 11, 2026
- Projected winnerSouth Dakota State 59%
- Projected scoreSouth Dakota State 74, Valparaiso 70
- Model spreadSouth Dakota State −3.5 total 144
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Valparaiso Beacons or South Dakota State Jackrabbits: the bandwagon
Axle 41–59Market –
Valparaiso Beacons at South Dakota State Jackrabbits win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | VAL | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAL– | SDST– |
| Average win probability | VAL– | SDST– |
| Longest scoring run | VAL– | SDST– |
| Time leading | VAL– | SDST– |
Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SDST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 59% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 58% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 59% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 58% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- SDST 1481 · VAL 1526
- Home spread
- −3.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Jackrabbits a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 144. Ratings: Jackrabbits 1481 (207th of 361), Beacons 1526 (134th). The Jackrabbits are 1-0; the Beacons are 1-0. The Jackrabbits have won 3 of their last 5; the Beacons 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Jackrabbits won 1, the Beacons 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Valparaiso Beacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 80–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bradley Braves | L 84–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana State Sycamores | W 63–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Evansville Purple Aces | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Drake Bulldogs | W 74–71 | – | – | matchup |
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kansas State Wildcats | W 68–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Thomas Tommies | L 67–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Dakota Coyotes | L 70–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Roos | W 73–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks | W 91–83 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Valparaiso Beacons | 61–50 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Valparaiso Beacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
South Dakota State Jackrabbits: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Beacons1-0 8th · W1
- Beacons rating1526 134th of 361, 1 games
- Jackrabbits1-0 4th · W1
- Jackrabbits rating1481 207th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $VALMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valparaiso Beacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SDSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Valparaiso Beacons at South Dakota State Jackrabbits
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Model: South Dakota State 59% to win. Projected score South Dakota State 74, Valparaiso 70; spread South Dakota State −3.5, total 144. Valparaiso Beacons at South Dakota State Jackrabbits, Wed, Nov 11, 8:00 PM ET.