Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Valparaiso Beacons: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreWestern Illinois 58, Valparaiso 80 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerValparaiso 85%
- Pregame Projected scoreValparaiso 79, Western Illinois 66
- Model spreadValparaiso −12.5 total 145.5
- Margin22 projected 12.7
- Total138 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Western Illinois Leathernecks or Valparaiso Beacons: the bandwagon
Axle 15–85Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| WIU | 19 | 39 | 58 |
| VAL | 38 | 42 | 80 |
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Valparaiso Beacons win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Valparaiso Beacons live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | WIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | WIU20/51 | VAL24/50 |
| 3-pointers | WIU4/14 | VAL4/16 |
| Free throws | WIU14/23 | VAL28/43 |
| Rebounds | WIU30 | VAL38 |
| Assists | WIU10 | VAL11 |
| Turnovers | WIU16 | VAL9 |
| Steals | WIU5 | VAL7 |
| Blocks | WIU2 | VAL5 |
| Points in the paint | WIU32 | VAL36 |
| Fast-break points | WIU8 | VAL9 |
| Fouls | WIU27 | VAL20 |
| Largest lead | WIU4 | VAL26 |
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Valparaiso Beacons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | WIU | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WIU58 | VAL80 |
| Average win probability | WIU5% | VAL95% |
| Longest scoring run | WIU+6 | VAL+12 |
| Time leading | WIU4:36 | VAL33:31 |
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Valparaiso Beacons odds
Every stored line
| Stored | VAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 85% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 89% | +24 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- VAL 1519 · WIU 1330
- Home spread
- −12.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET · 2026-11-03 03:07 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Western Illinois Leathernecks 58, Valparaiso Beacons 80. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Western Illinois Leathernecks vs Valparaiso Beacons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Beacons a 12.5-point favorite at home, with a 85% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Beacons 1526 (134th of 361), Leathernecks 1323 (355th). The Beacons are 1-0; the Leathernecks are 0-1. The Beacons have won 3 of their last 5; the Leathernecks 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Beacons won 1, the Leathernecks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Western Illinois Leathernecks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Valparaiso Beacons | L 58–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SIU Edwardsville Cougars | L 47–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Morehead State Eagles | L 59–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Little Rock Trojans | L 58–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Illinois Panthers | W 79–70 | – | – | matchup |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 80–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bradley Braves | L 84–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana State Sycamores | W 63–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Evansville Purple Aces | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Drake Bulldogs | W 74–71 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Illinois Leathernecks at Valparaiso Beacons | 66–73 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Western Illinois Leathernecks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Valparaiso Beacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Leathernecks0-1 9th · L1
- Leathernecks rating1323 355th of 361, 1 games
- Beacons1-0 8th · W1
- Beacons rating1526 134th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $WIUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Western Illinois Leathernecks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $VALMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valparaiso Beacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Final: Western Illinois 58, Valparaiso 80. Bandwagon's model had the Valparaiso at 85% and projected Valparaiso 79, Western Illinois 66; spread Valparaiso −12.5, total 145.5.