App State Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers prediction, odds and picks, November 9, 2026
- Projected winnerAuburn 74%
- Projected scoreAuburn 75, App State 68
- Model spreadAuburn −8 total 143
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
App State Mountaineers or Auburn Tigers: the bandwagon
Axle 26–74Market –
App State Mountaineers at Auburn Tigers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
App State Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
App State Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | APP | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | APP– | AUB– |
| Average win probability | APP– | AUB– |
| Longest scoring run | APP– | AUB– |
| Time leading | APP– | AUB– |
App State Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | AUB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 11:51 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 11:51 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET | 74% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:10 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 73% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 72% | −3 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 78% | +13 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- AUB 1613 · APP 1550
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 4, 11:51 PM ET · 2026-11-05 04:51 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
App State Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 8-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance to win. The model total is 143. Ratings: Tigers 1605 (43rd of 361), Mountaineers 1550 (89th). The Tigers are 0-0; the Mountaineers are 1-0. The Tigers have won 5 of their last 5; the Mountaineers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Tigers won 0, the Mountaineers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
App State Mountaineers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at App State Mountaineers | L 49–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 73–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 57–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 89–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | L 93–94 | – | – | matchup |
Auburn Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs SE Louisiana Lions | W 92–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 92–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois State Redbirds | W 88–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nevada Wolf Pack | W 75–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle U Redhawks | W 91–85 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn Tigers at App State Mountaineers | 64–69 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
App State Mountaineers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Auburn Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mountaineers1-0 1st · W1
- Mountaineers rating1550 89th of 361, 1 games
- Tigers0-0 15th · -
- Tigers rating1605 43rd of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $APPMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the App State Mountaineers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Auburn Tigers 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 15th · streak -
No stances yet today on $AUBMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Auburn Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on App State Mountaineers at Auburn Tigers
Sign in to post a take on $APPMBBAUBMBB261110: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Auburn 74% to win. Projected score Auburn 75, App State 68; spread Auburn −8, total 143. App State Mountaineers at Auburn Tigers, Mon, Nov 9, 9:00 PM ET.