Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction, odds and picks, November 15, 2026
- Projected winnerTexas State 59%
- Projected scoreTexas State 73, UTSA 72
- Model spreadTexas State −1 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Texas State Bobcats or UTSA Roadrunners: the bandwagon
Axle 59–41Market –
Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TXST | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TXST– | UTSA– |
| Average win probability | TXST– | UTSA– |
| Longest scoring run | TXST– | UTSA– |
| Time leading | TXST– | UTSA– |
Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UTSA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:23 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 2:23 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 41% | −2 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 43% | −2 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | — |
- Ratings
- UTSA 1345 · TXST 1511
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bobcats a 1-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Roadrunners 1345 (352nd of 361), Bobcats 1511 (159th). The Roadrunners are 0-0; the Bobcats are 0-0. The Roadrunners have won 0 of their last 5; the Bobcats 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Roadrunners won 1, the Bobcats 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Texas State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W 67–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 77–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 60–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 54–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | W 90–82 | – | – | matchup |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San José State Spartans | L 74–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | L 71–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wichita State Shockers | L 67–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | L 81–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 74–100 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats | 69–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats | 62–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners | 56–61 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Texas State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UTSA Roadrunners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bobcats0-0 7th · -
- Bobcats rating1511 159th of 361, 1 games
- Roadrunners0-0 12th · -
- Roadrunners rating1345 352nd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak -
No stances yet today on $TXSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UTSA Roadrunners 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak -
No stances yet today on $UTSAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTSA Roadrunners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners
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Model: Texas State 59% to win. Projected score Texas State 73, UTSA 72; spread Texas State −1, total 145.5. Texas State Bobcats at UTSA Roadrunners, Sun, Nov 15, 8:00 PM ET.