Jordan Reyes: San José State Spartans finished on top of UTSA Roadrunners 95-74, a 21-point margin in the final. Pregame the model had the Spartans at 73 percent, and the final leaned their way.
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UTSA Roadrunners vs San José State Spartans: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreUTSA 74, San José State 95 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSan José State 73%
- Pregame Projected scoreSan José State 77, UTSA 69
- Model spreadSan José State −7.5 total 145.5
- Margin21 projected 7.5
- Total169 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UTSA Roadrunners or San José State Spartans: the bandwagon
Axle 27–73Market –
FinalPregame: SJSU 73%Baseline: SJSU 91.2% (+18.3)Big swing: 19.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 27 | 47 | 74 |
| SJSU | 45 | 50 | 95 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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UTSA Roadrunners at San José State Spartans win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for SJSU over the last 5:00
Big swing19.4 ptstoward SJSU at 3:56 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineSJSU 91.2%game average, +18.3 points from the pregame 72.9%
UTSA Roadrunners vs San José State Spartans live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UTSA | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | UTSA27/63 | SJSU33/56 |
| 3-pointers | UTSA12/34 | SJSU10/26 |
| Free throws | UTSA8/13 | SJSU19/22 |
| Rebounds | UTSA22 | SJSU43 |
| Assists | UTSA16 | SJSU24 |
| Turnovers | UTSA14 | SJSU21 |
| Steals | UTSA11 | SJSU9 |
| Blocks | UTSA2 | SJSU1 |
| Points in the paint | UTSA28 | SJSU46 |
| Fast-break points | UTSA12 | SJSU19 |
| Fouls | UTSA19 | SJSU15 |
| Largest lead | UTSA3 | SJSU27 |
UTSA Roadrunners vs San José State Spartans team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UTSA | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTSA74 | SJSU95 |
| Average win probability | UTSA9% | SJSU91% |
| Longest scoring run | UTSA+7 | SJSU+9 |
| Time leading | UTSA3:18 | SJSU35:05 |
UTSA Roadrunners vs San José State Spartans odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET
Roadrunners27%
Win chanceSpartans73%
SpreadSJSU −7.5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+269away / −269homeaway / home
Line movementSJSU win chance, 10 stored lines
+8 pts for SJSU between Oct 29 and Nov 2
81%60%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | SJSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 73% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 75% | +10 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- SJSU 1417 · UTSA 1358
- Home spread
- −7.5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET · 2026-11-02 21:48 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: UTSA Roadrunners 74, San José State Spartans 95. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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RoadrunnersSpartans
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RoadrunnersSpartans
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Spartans–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UTSA Roadrunners vs San José State Spartans prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Spartans a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Spartans 1430 (277th of 361), Roadrunners 1345 (352nd). The Spartans are 1-0; the Roadrunners are 0-1. The Spartans have won 2 of their last 5; the Roadrunners 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UTSA Roadrunners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San José State Spartans | L 74–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | L 71–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wichita State Shockers | L 67–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | L 81–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 74–100 | – | – | matchup |
San José State Spartans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UTSA Roadrunners | W 95–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 77–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boise State Broncos | W 84–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | L 78–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Fresno State Bulldogs | L 68–82 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UTSA Roadrunners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San José State Spartans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Roadrunners0-1 13th · L1
- Roadrunners rating1345 352nd of 361, 1 games
- Spartans1-0 5th · W1
- Spartans rating1430 277th of 361, 1 games
UTSA Roadrunners 0-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 13th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $UTSAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTSA Roadrunners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SJSUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $SJSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San José State Spartans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UTSA Roadrunners at San José State Spartans
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Final: UTSA 74, San José State 95. Bandwagon's model had the San José State at 73% and projected San José State 77, UTSA 69; spread San José State −7.5, total 145.5.