New Mexico State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction, odds and picks, November 15, 2026
- Projected winnerSan Diego State 69%
- Projected scoreSan Diego State 76, New Mexico State 69
- Model spreadSan Diego State −6.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New Mexico State Aggies or San Diego State Aztecs: the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market –
New Mexico State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New Mexico State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New Mexico State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NMSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NMSU– | SDSU– |
| Average win probability | NMSU– | SDSU– |
| Longest scoring run | NMSU– | SDSU– |
| Time leading | NMSU– | SDSU– |
New Mexico State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SDSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 69% | +1 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:18 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:09 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | — |
- Ratings
- SDSU 1612 · NMSU 1496
- Home spread
- −6.5 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
New Mexico State Aggies vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aztecs a 6.5-point favorite, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Aztecs 1612 (40th of 361), Aggies 1496 (184th). The Aztecs are 0-0; the Aggies are 0-0. The Aztecs have won 4 of their last 5; the Aggies 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New Mexico State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sam Houston Bearkats | L 61–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | W 68–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 79–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks | W 77–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L 85–86 | – | – | matchup |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cal State Fullerton Titans | W 102–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah State Aggies | L 62–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico Lobos | W 64–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 71–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UNLV Rebels | W 89–86 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
New Mexico State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Diego State Aztecs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies0-0 8th · -
- Aggies rating1496 184th of 361, 0 games
- Aztecs0-0 6th · -
- Aztecs rating1612 40th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak -
No stances yet today on $NMSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New Mexico State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 6th · streak -
No stances yet today on $SDSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego State Aztecs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New Mexico State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs
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Model: San Diego State 69% to win. Projected score San Diego State 76, New Mexico State 69; spread San Diego State −6.5, total 145.5. New Mexico State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs, Sun, Nov 15, 3:30 PM ET.