Iona Gaels vs UMBC Retrievers prediction, odds and picks, November 16, 2026
- Projected winnerUMBC 72%
- Projected scoreUMBC 75, Iona 67
- Model spreadUMBC −7.5 total 142
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Iona Gaels or UMBC Retrievers: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market –
Iona Gaels at UMBC Retrievers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Iona Gaels vs UMBC Retrievers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Iona Gaels vs UMBC Retrievers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | IONA | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | IONA– | UMBC– |
| Average win probability | IONA– | UMBC– |
| Longest scoring run | IONA– | UMBC– |
| Time leading | IONA– | UMBC– |
Iona Gaels vs UMBC Retrievers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UMBC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:13 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | — |
- Ratings
- UMBC 1544 · IONA 1495
- Home spread
- −7.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Iona Gaels vs UMBC Retrievers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Retrievers a 7.5-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 142. Ratings: Retrievers 1544 (97th of 361), Gaels 1495 (185th). The Retrievers are 0-0; the Gaels are 0-0. The Retrievers have won 3 of their last 5; the Gaels 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Iona Gaels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Vermont Catamounts | W 56–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacred Heart Pioneers | L 80–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Manhattan Jaspers | W 69–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rider Broncs | W 80–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Merrimack Warriors | L 86–88 | – | – | matchup |
UMBC Retrievers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at George Mason Patriots | L 54–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Howard Bison | L 83–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vermont Catamounts | W 74–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMass Lowell River Hawks | W 91–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Hampshire Wildcats | W 84–69 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Iona Gaels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UMBC Retrievers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Gaels0-0 3rd · -
- Gaels rating1495 185th of 361, 1 games
- Retrievers0-0 8th · -
- Retrievers rating1544 97th of 361, 1 games
Iona Gaels 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak -
No stances yet today on $IONAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iona Gaels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
UMBC Retrievers 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak -
No stances yet today on $UMBCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMBC Retrievers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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