George Mason beat UMBC 82-54 to end the game with a 28-point margin, the biggest gap on the board. The pregame model had George Mason at 64 percent, and the final score ran well past that, with no crowd picks recorded.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Patriot Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreUMBC 54, George Mason 82 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerGeorge Mason 64%
- Pregame Projected scoreGeorge Mason 75, UMBC 70
- Model spreadGeorge Mason −5 total 145.5
- Margin28 projected 5
- Total136 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UMBC Retrievers or George Mason Patriots: the bandwagon
Axle 36–64Market –
FinalPregame: GMU 64%Baseline: GMU 88.6% (+24.9)Big swing: 14.6 ptsClutch window: 1:31
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 27 | 27 | 54 |
| GMU | 33 | 49 | 82 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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UMBC Retrievers at George Mason Patriots win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for GMU over the last 5:00
Big swing14.6 ptstoward GMU at 8:34 of game time
Clutch window1:31within 5 points in the final half
BaselineGMU 88.6%game average, +24.9 points from the pregame 63.7%
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UMBC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | UMBC20/72 | GMU28/68 |
| 3-pointers | UMBC8/31 | GMU9/30 |
| Free throws | UMBC6/7 | GMU17/22 |
| Rebounds | UMBC40 | GMU54 |
| Assists | UMBC11 | GMU14 |
| Turnovers | UMBC12 | GMU10 |
| Steals | UMBC6 | GMU6 |
| Blocks | UMBC3 | GMU3 |
| Points in the paint | UMBC12 | GMU36 |
| Fast-break points | UMBC4 | GMU19 |
| Fouls | UMBC19 | GMU11 |
| Largest lead | UMBC0 | GMU28 |
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UMBC | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UMBC54 | GMU82 |
| Average win probability | UMBC11% | GMU89% |
| Longest scoring run | UMBC+9 | GMU+16 |
| Time leading | UMBC0:00 | GMU36:56 |
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET
Retrievers36%
Win chancePatriots64%
SpreadGMU −5closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+176away / −176homeaway / home
Line movementGMU win chance, 7 stored lines
−1 pts for GMU between Oct 29 and Nov 2
71%58%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | GMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 64% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- GMU 1551 · UMBC 1564
- Home spread
- −5
- Stored
- Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-02 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: UMBC Retrievers 54, George Mason Patriots 82. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
RetrieversPatriots
Neutrals only–
RetrieversPatriots
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Patriots–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UMBC Retrievers vs George Mason Patriots prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Patriots a 5-point favorite at home, with a 64% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Patriots 1572 (69th of 361), Retrievers 1544 (97th). The Patriots are 0-0; the Retrievers are 0-0. The Patriots have won 2 of their last 5; the Retrievers 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UMBC Retrievers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at George Mason Patriots | L 54–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Howard Bison | L 83–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vermont Catamounts | W 74–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMass Lowell River Hawks | W 91–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Hampshire Wildcats | W 84–69 | – | – | matchup |
George Mason Patriots
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UMBC Retrievers | W 82–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Liberty Flames | L 71–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies | L 57–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Saint Louis Billikens | W 86–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VCU Rams | L 65–70 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UMBC Retrievers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
George Mason Patriots: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Retrievers0-0 8th · -
- Retrievers rating1544 97th of 361, 1 games
- Patriots0-0 5th · -
- Patriots rating1572 69th of 361, 1 games
UMBC Retrievers 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UMBCMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UMBCMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UMBCMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UMBCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMBC Retrievers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $GMUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $GMUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $GMUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $GMUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the George Mason Patriots bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UMBC Retrievers at George Mason Patriots
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