Tarleton State Texans vs Drake Bulldogs prediction, odds and picks, November 16, 2026
- Projected winnerDrake 73%
- Projected scoreDrake 77, Tarleton State 69
- Model spreadDrake −8 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Tarleton State Texans or Drake Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 27–73Market –
Tarleton State Texans at Drake Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Tarleton State Texans vs Drake Bulldogs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Tarleton State Texans vs Drake Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TAR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TAR– | DRKE– |
| Average win probability | TAR– | DRKE– |
| Longest scoring run | TAR– | DRKE– |
| Time leading | TAR– | DRKE– |
Tarleton State Texans vs Drake Bulldogs odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DRKE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:40 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:20 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 73% | — |
- Ratings
- DRKE 1496 · TAR 1434
- Home spread
- −8
- Stored
- Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Tarleton State Texans vs Drake Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 8-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1496 (182nd of 361), Texans 1434 (271st). The Bulldogs are 0-0; the Texans are 1-0. The Bulldogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Texans 0 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulldogs won 1, the Texans 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Tarleton State Texans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Abilene Christian Wildcats | L 78–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UT Arlington Mavericks | L 60–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at California Baptist Lancers | L 67–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Valley Wolverines | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Tech Trailblazers | L 72–80 | – | – | matchup |
Drake Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UIC Flames | L 51–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Belmont Bruins | W 100–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Illinois Salukis | W 67–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Iowa Panthers | L 53–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Valparaiso Beacons | L 71–74 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Bulldogs at Tarleton State Texans | 71–64 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Tarleton State Texans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Drake Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Texans1-0 5th · W1
- Texans rating1434 271st of 361, 0 games
- Bulldogs0-0 10th · -
- Bulldogs rating1496 182nd of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TARMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tarleton State Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Drake Bulldogs 0-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak -
No stances yet today on $DRKEMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Drake Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Tarleton State Texans at Drake Bulldogs
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Model: Drake 73% to win. Projected score Drake 77, Tarleton State 69; spread Drake −8, total 145.5. Tarleton State Texans at Drake Bulldogs, Mon, Nov 16, 7:30 PM ET.