UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento State Hornets prediction, odds and picks, November 14, 2026
- Projected winnereven
- Projected scoreSacramento State 73, UC Davis 72
- Model spreadSacramento State −1.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UC Davis Aggies or Sacramento State Hornets: the bandwagon
Axle 49–51Market –
UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento State Hornets live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento State Hornets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UCD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UCD– | SAC– |
| Average win probability | UCD– | SAC– |
| Longest scoring run | UCD– | SAC– |
| Time leading | UCD– | SAC– |
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento State Hornets odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:18 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:13 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 51% | +2 |
| Nov 3, 12:10 AM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 48% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 49% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 48% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | — |
- Ratings
- SAC 1391 · UCD 1490
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:16 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:16 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento State Hornets prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 51% for the Hornets. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Hornets 1391 (329th of 361), Aggies 1490 (193rd). The Hornets are 1-0; the Aggies are 0-1. The Hornets have won 1 of their last 5; the Aggies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Hornets won 1, the Aggies 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UC Davis Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Alabama Lions | L 75–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Cal State Fullerton Titans | L 70–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | W 79–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UC Irvine Anteaters | L 69–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Long Beach State Beach | W 76–70 | – | – | matchup |
Sacramento State Hornets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Idaho Vandals | L 45–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Idaho State Bengals | W 83–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Montana State Bobcats | L 61–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Montana Grizzlies | L 73–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Idaho Vandals | L 80–86 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies | 73–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets | 69–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies | 69–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sacramento State Hornets at UC Davis Aggies | 71–82 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
UC Davis Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sacramento State Hornets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Aggies0-1 9th · L1
- Aggies rating1490 193rd of 361, 1 games
- Hornets1-0 2nd · W1
- Hornets rating1391 329th of 361, 0 games
UC Davis Aggies 0-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UCDMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UC Davis Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SACMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sacramento State Hornets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: even. Projected score Sacramento State 73, UC Davis 72; spread Sacramento State −1.5, total 145.5. UC Davis Aggies at Sacramento State Hornets, Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM ET.