Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers prediction, odds and picks, November 14, 2026
- Projected winnerDayton 68%
- Projected scoreDayton 75, Cincinnati 69
- Model spreadDayton −6 total 144.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cincinnati Bearcats or Dayton Flyers: the bandwagon
Axle 32–68Market –
Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CIN | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CIN– | DAY– |
| Average win probability | CIN– | DAY– |
| Longest scoring run | CIN– | DAY– |
| Time leading | CIN– | DAY– |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:24 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 68% | — |
- Ratings
- DAY 1616 · CIN 1600
- Home spread
- −6
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Flyers a 6-point favorite at home, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 144.5. Ratings: Flyers 1616 (37th of 361), Bearcats 1600 (45th). The Flyers are 1-0; the Bearcats are 1-0. The Flyers have won 3 of their last 5; the Bearcats 3 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Flyers won 1, the Bearcats 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cincinnati Bearcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs American University Eagles | W 79–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCF Knights | L 65–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Utes | W 73–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TCU Horned Frogs | L 63–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs BYU Cougars | W 90–68 | – | – | matchup |
Dayton Flyers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs NJIT Highlanders | W 89–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Illinois State Redbirds | L 55–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNC Wilmington Seahawks | W 80–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bradley Braves | W 80–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VCU Rams | L 62–70 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Flyers at Cincinnati Bearcats | 62–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers | 66–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dayton Flyers at Cincinnati Bearcats | 82–68 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cincinnati Bearcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Dayton Flyers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearcats1-0 4th · W1
- Bearcats rating1600 45th of 361, 1 games
- Flyers1-0 2nd · W1
- Flyers rating1616 37th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $CINMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cincinnati Bearcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Dayton Flyers 1-0
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $DAYMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dayton Flyers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers
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Model: Dayton 68% to win. Projected score Dayton 75, Cincinnati 69; spread Dayton −6, total 144.5. Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers, Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET.