Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction, odds and picks, November 12, 2026
- Projected winnerPenn State 67%
- Projected scorePenn State 75, Mercyhurst 69
- Model spreadPenn State −6 total 144
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mercyhurst Lakers or Penn State Nittany Lions: the bandwagon
Axle 33–67Market –
Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MERC | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MERC– | PSU– |
| Average win probability | MERC– | PSU– |
| Longest scoring run | MERC– | PSU– |
| Time leading | MERC– | PSU– |
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:39 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:40 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 67% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:59 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 66% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 64% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 64% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:16 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 62% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 61% | — |
- Ratings
- PSU 1456 · MERC 1450
- Home spread
- −6
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nittany Lions a 6-point favorite at home, with a 67% chance to win. The model total is 144. Ratings: Nittany Lions 1456 (248th of 361), Lakers 1450 (252nd). The Nittany Lions are 1-0; the Lakers are 0-1. The Nittany Lions have won 2 of their last 5; the Lakers 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Marquette Golden Eagles | L 43–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Long Island University Sharks | L 70–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stonehill Skyhawks | W 56–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 70–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stonehill Skyhawks | W 75–72 | – | – | matchup |
Penn State Nittany Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Canisius Golden Griffins | W 97–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 66–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | L 62–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 62–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | W 71–69 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Mercyhurst Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Penn State Nittany Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lakers0-1 7th · L1
- Lakers rating1450 252nd of 361, 1 games
- Nittany Lions1-0 11th · W1
- Nittany Lions rating1456 248th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MERCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercyhurst Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Penn State Nittany Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions
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Model: Penn State 67% to win. Projected score Penn State 75, Mercyhurst 69; spread Penn State −6, total 144. Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions, Thu, Nov 12, 6:30 PM ET.