Men's college basketball prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Men's college basketball prediction markets: 110 games have a Kalshi or Polymarket price in the next 7 days; largest gap between a market and the model, 47 points, with the model higher: Quakers at Midshipmen, home win chance Kalshi 19%, model 66%. Latest price read Nov 11, 1:51 AM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Games with a market price, beside the model. Futures · model lines
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Men's college basketball prediction market odds Wednesday, November 11
48 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PENN at NAVY Pennsylvania Quakers at Navy Midshipmen | 81 · 19 Kalshi · | 80 · 20 Polymarket · | 34 · 66 model 2.0 | – | −47 NAVY, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| USC at CAL USC Trojans at California Golden Bears | 76 · 24 Kalshi · | 77 · 23 Polymarket · | 36 · 64 model 2.0 | – | −41 CAL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| KC at FAMU Kansas City Roos at Florida A&M Rattlers | 70 · 30 Kalshi · | 68 · 32 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −38 FAMU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| PEPP at SHSU Pepperdine Waves at Sam Houston Bearkats | 53 · 47 Kalshi · | 54 · 46 Polymarket · | 18 · 82 model 2.0 | – | −36 SHSU, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LUC at AF Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Air Force Falcons | 82 · 18 Kalshi · | 81 · 19 Polymarket · | 54 · 46 model 2.0 | – | −27 AF, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ODU at NORF Old Dominion Monarchs at Norfolk State Spartans | 67 · 33 Kalshi · | 67 · 33 Polymarket · | 40 · 60 model 2.0 | – | −27 NORF, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SPU at SC Saint Peter's Peacocks at South Carolina Gamecocks | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | 4 · 96 Polymarket · | 30 · 70 model 2.0 | – | +26 SC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MARQ at MICH Marquette Golden Eagles at Michigan Wolverines | 39 · 61 Kalshi · | 38 · 62 Polymarket · | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | −25 MICH, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SCST at ND South Carolina State Bulldogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | 4 · 96 Polymarket · | 28 · 72 model 2.0 | – | +25 ND, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| USI at IUIN Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at IU Indianapolis Jaguars | 27 · 73 Kalshi · | 29 · 71 Polymarket · | 51 · 49 model 2.0 | – | +25 IUIN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| FUR at HC Furman Paladins at Holy Cross Crusaders | 88 · 12 Kalshi · | 88 · 12 Polymarket · | 65 · 35 model 2.0 | – | −23 HC, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| UML at MASS UMass Lowell River Hawks at Massachusetts Minutemen | 16 · 84 Kalshi · | 15 · 85 Polymarket · | 36 · 64 model 2.0 | – | +21 MASS, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| NCCU at VMI North Carolina Central Eagles at VMI Keydets | 27 · 73 Kalshi · | 27 · 73 Polymarket · | 47 · 53 model 2.0 | – | +20 VMI, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| PAC at LBSU Pacific Tigers at Long Beach State Beach | 69 · 31 Kalshi · | 70 · 30 Polymarket · | 51 · 49 model 2.0 | – | −19 LBSU, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| RMU at ARK Robert Morris Colonials at Arkansas Razorbacks | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | 2 · 98 Polymarket · | 19 · 81 model 2.0 | – | +19 ARK, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| PRST at CSU Portland State Vikings at Colorado State Rams | 8 · 92 Kalshi · | 8 · 92 Polymarket · | 24 · 76 model 2.0 | – | +17 CSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| AMER at DREX American University Eagles at Drexel Dragons | 48 · 52 Kalshi · | 47 · 53 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −17 DREX, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DART at UALB Dartmouth Big Green at UAlbany Great Danes | 54 · 46 Kalshi · | 53 · 47 Polymarket · | 38 · 62 model 2.0 | – | −16 UALB, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LIN at NEB Lindenwood Lions at Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 16 · 84 model 2.0 | – | +15 NEB, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| JMU at DEL James Madison Dukes at Delaware Blue Hens | 61 · 39 Kalshi · | 61 · 39 Polymarket · | 46 · 54 model 2.0 | – | −15 DEL, Kalshi | Matchup |
20 of 48 games with a price, the biggest gaps to the model first. The other 28 are priced too; each is on its game page.
Men's college basketball prediction market odds Thursday, November 12
20 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSUB at WIU Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners at Western Illinois Leathernecks | 80 · 20 Kalshi · | no market | 44 · 56 model 2.0 | – | −36 WIU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MERC at PSU Mercyhurst Lakers at Penn State Nittany Lions | 5 · 95 Kalshi · | no market | 32 · 68 model 2.0 | – | +27 PSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| WMU at PFW Western Michigan Broncos at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | 55 · 45 Kalshi · | no market | 32 · 68 model 2.0 | – | −23 PFW, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MER at WVU Mercer Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | no market | 24 · 76 model 2.0 | – | +21 WVU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MTST at BYU Montana State Bobcats at BYU Cougars | 4 · 96 Kalshi · | no market | 21 · 79 model 2.0 | – | +16 BYU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TNTC at IU Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Indiana Hoosiers | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | no market | 17 · 83 model 2.0 | – | +16 IU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| STET at HOW Stetson Hatters at Howard Bison | 24 · 76 Kalshi · | no market | 10 · 90 model 2.0 | – | −14 HOW, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UWF at AAMU West Florida Argonauts at Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 31 · 69 Kalshi · | no market | 43 · 57 model 2.0 | – | +12 AAMU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UCR at SJSU UC Riverside Highlanders at San José State Spartans | 25 · 75 Kalshi · | no market | 36 · 64 model 2.0 | – | +11 SJSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BRAD at COPP Bradley Braves at Coppin State Eagles | 83 · 17 Kalshi · | no market | 74 · 26 model 2.0 | – | −10 COPP, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| L-MD at TOW Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Towson Tigers | 10 · 90 Kalshi · | no market | 19 · 81 model 2.0 | – | +9 TOW, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CCSU at SHU Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Sacred Heart Pioneers | 24 · 76 Kalshi · | no market | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | +6 SHU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CAN at BRWN Canisius Golden Griffins at Brown Bears | 19 · 81 Kalshi · | no market | 24 · 76 model 2.0 | – | +5 BRWN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NMSU at UTEP New Mexico State Aggies at UTEP Miners | 37 · 63 Kalshi · | no market | 42 · 58 model 2.0 | – | +5 UTEP, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NIA at BGSU Niagara Purple Eagles at Bowling Green Falcons | 12 · 88 Kalshi · | no market | 17 · 83 model 2.0 | – | +4 BGSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UMES at URI Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Rhode Island Rams | 7 · 93 Kalshi · | no market | 4 · 96 model 2.0 | – | −3 URI, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SOU at MINN Southern Jaguars at Minnesota Golden Gophers | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | no market | 6 · 94 model 2.0 | – | +3 MINN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| KC at GMU Kansas City Roos at George Mason Patriots | 10 · 90 Kalshi · | no market | 13 · 87 model 2.0 | – | +3 GMU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| OKST at TA&M Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas A&M Aggies | 28 · 72 Kalshi · | no market | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | −2 TA&M, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SUU at HPU Southern Utah Thunderbirds at High Point Panthers | 11 · 89 Kalshi · | no market | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | 0 HPU, Kalshi | Matchup |
Men's college basketball prediction market odds Friday, November 13
35 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP at CLT App State Mountaineers at Charlotte 49ers | 15 · 85 Kalshi · | no market | 41 · 59 model 2.0 | – | +26 CLT, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DEP at NU DePaul Blue Demons at Northwestern Wildcats | 55 · 45 Kalshi · | no market | 30 · 70 model 2.0 | – | −25 NU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| AMCC at FSU Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at Florida State Seminoles | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | no market | 27 · 73 model 2.0 | – | +21 FSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MSM at VT Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers at Virginia Tech Hokies | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | no market | 23 · 77 model 2.0 | – | +20 VT, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CHST at USD Chicago State Cougars at San Diego Toreros | 10 · 90 Kalshi · | no market | 30 · 70 model 2.0 | – | +20 USD, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UNI at MSU Northern Iowa Panthers at Michigan State Spartans | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | no market | 20 · 80 model 2.0 | – | +19 MSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CP at IDHO Cal Poly Mustangs at Idaho Vandals | 49 · 51 Kalshi · | no market | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | −18 IDHO, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BRY at RUTG Bryant Bulldogs at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | no market | 19 · 81 model 2.0 | – | +16 RUTG, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CARK at ARK Central Arkansas Bears at Arkansas Razorbacks | 4 · 96 Kalshi · | no market | 20 · 80 model 2.0 | – | +16 ARK, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SHSU at ILL Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | no market | 17 · 83 model 2.0 | – | +15 ILL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TNST at TENN Tennessee State Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | no market | 16 · 84 model 2.0 | – | +15 TENN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LIU at FOR Long Island University Sharks at Fordham Rams | 12 · 88 Kalshi · | no market | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | +14 FOR, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UNA at MIA North Alabama Lions at Miami Hurricanes | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | +13 MIA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TXSO at MUR Texas Southern Tigers at Murray State Racers | 5 · 95 Kalshi · | no market | 17 · 83 model 2.0 | – | +13 MUR, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| FDU at OU Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Oklahoma Sooners | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | no market | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | +12 OU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MILW at TCU Milwaukee Panthers at TCU Horned Frogs | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | no market | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | +11 TCU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| PV at VAN Prairie View A&M Panthers at Vanderbilt Commodores | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | +11 VAN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| GTWN at CLEM Georgetown Hoyas at Clemson Tigers | 35 · 65 Kalshi · | no market | 25 · 75 model 2.0 | – | −10 CLEM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| PITT at BTLR Pittsburgh Panthers at Butler Bulldogs | 53 · 47 Kalshi · | no market | 43 · 57 model 2.0 | – | −10 BTLR, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UGA at UNC Georgia Bulldogs at North Carolina Tar Heels | 34 · 66 Kalshi · | no market | 25 · 75 model 2.0 | – | −9 UNC, Kalshi | Matchup |
20 of 35 games with a price, the biggest gaps to the model first. The other 15 are priced too; each is on its game page.
Men's college basketball prediction market odds Saturday, November 14
7 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRAD at GMU Bradley Braves at George Mason Patriots | 9 · 91 Kalshi · | no market | 38 · 62 model 2.0 | – | +29 GMU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| M-OH at EVAN Miami (OH) RedHawks at Evansville Purple Aces | 95 · 5 Kalshi · | no market | 71 · 29 model 2.0 | – | −24 EVAN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| GWEB at SC Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | no market | 15 · 85 model 2.0 | – | +12 SC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| STO at TTU Stonehill Skyhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 9 · 91 model 2.0 | – | +9 TTU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ULM at GCU UL Monroe Warhawks at Grand Canyon Lopes | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 7 · 93 model 2.0 | – | +6 GCU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| COPP at USF Coppin State Eagles at South Florida Bulls | 4 · 96 Kalshi · | no market | 8 · 92 model 2.0 | – | +4 USF, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| RID at VILL Rider Broncs at Villanova Wildcats | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 3 · 97 model 2.0 | – | +2 VILL, Kalshi | Matchup |
Men's college basketball national championship odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
All teams| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Axle rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 14% | 16% | #1 |
| Florida Gators | 13% | 14% | #4 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 8.3% | 10% | #27 |
| UConn Huskies | 10% | 8.9% | #5 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 8.2% | 9% | #9 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 8.2% | 7.5% | #10 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 3.1% | 5.6% | #3 |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 3.6% | 4.8% | #30 |
Men's college basketball: market versus model record
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in Men's college basketball over 111 games (Brier 0.1335 against 0.1682, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in Men's college basketball over 111 games (Brier 0.1347 against 0.1682, lower is better).
| League | Games | Who | n | Brier | Log loss | Straight-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men's college basketball | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 111 | 0.1335 | 0.4054 | 77% |
| Men's college basketball | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 111 | 0.1682 | 0.5118 | 76% |
| Men's college basketball | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 111 | 0.1347 | 0.4071 | 77% |
| Men's college basketball | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 111 | 0.1682 | 0.5118 | 76% |
The model's numbers are on the same games the market was scored on. 0.25 Brier and 0.693 log loss are a coin flip.
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Kalshi and Polymarket prices for upcoming Men's college basketball games and the season, next to Bandwagon's model and the crowd's picks, with the record of who was right. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.