Women's college basketball prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Women's college basketball prediction markets: 106 games have a Kalshi or Polymarket price in the next 7 days; largest gap between a market and the model, 73 points, with the model higher: Golden Eagles at Lady Bears, home win chance Kalshi 7%, model 80%. Latest price read Nov 11, 2:11 AM ET. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Games with a market price, beside the model. Futures · model lines
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Women's college basketball prediction market odds Wednesday, November 11
55 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE at UVM Oregon Ducks at Vermont Catamounts | 92 · 8 Kalshi · | 92 · 8 Polymarket · | 38 · 62 model 2.0 | – | −54 UVM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ACU at RGV Abilene Christian Wildcats at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | 93 · 7 Kalshi · | no market | 54 · 46 model 2.0 | – | −39 RGV, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| COLO at SDSU Colorado Buffaloes at San Diego State Aztecs | 74 · 26 Kalshi · | 73 · 27 Polymarket · | 34 · 66 model 2.0 | – | −39 SDSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MONM at RUTG Monmouth Hawks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 13 · 87 Kalshi · | 13 · 87 Polymarket · | 51 · 49 model 2.0 | – | +38 RUTG, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| QUIN at SJU Quinnipiac Bobcats at St. John's Red Storm | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | 3 · 97 Polymarket · | 38 · 62 model 2.0 | – | +36 SJU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TROY at MSST Troy Trojans at Mississippi State Bulldogs | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | 5 · 95 Polymarket · | 39 · 61 model 2.0 | – | +34 MSST, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| HPU at ECU High Point Panthers at East Carolina Pirates | 79 · 21 Kalshi · | no market | 50 · 50 model 2.0 | – | −29 ECU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LIU at SMU Long Island University Sharks at SMU Mustangs | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | 3 · 97 Polymarket · | 31 · 69 model 2.0 | – | +29 SMU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UNM at FRES New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs | 23 · 77 Kalshi · | no market | 51 · 49 model 2.0 | – | +28 FRES, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BRY at PROV Bryant Bulldogs at Providence Friars | 18 · 82 Kalshi · | no market | 46 · 54 model 2.0 | – | +28 PROV, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| COPP at HOF Coppin State Eagles at Hofstra Pride | 9 · 91 Kalshi · | 10 · 90 Polymarket · | 37 · 63 model 2.0 | – | +28 HOF, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| RAD at CAM Radford Highlanders at Campbell Fighting Camels | 72 · 28 Kalshi · | 73 · 27 Polymarket · | 45 · 55 model 2.0 | – | −27 CAM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UML at BC UMass Lowell River Hawks at Boston College Eagles | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | 8 · 92 Polymarket · | 32 · 68 model 2.0 | – | +26 BC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UWF at FSU West Florida Argonauts at Florida State Seminoles | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | +25 FSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| JAX at CCU Jacksonville Dolphins at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 25 · 75 Kalshi · | no market | 49 · 51 model 2.0 | – | +24 CCU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| GB at ILST Green Bay Phoenix at Illinois State Redbirds | 71 · 29 Kalshi · | no market | 48 · 52 model 2.0 | – | −23 ILST, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SDAK at CREI South Dakota Coyotes at Creighton Bluejays | 15 · 85 Kalshi · | 22 · 78 Polymarket · | 37 · 63 model 2.0 | – | +22 CREI, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TEM at LAS Temple Owls at La Salle Explorers | 62 · 38 Kalshi · | 62 · 38 Polymarket · | 42 · 58 model 2.0 | – | −20 LAS, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| LIB at NCSU Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | 6 · 94 Polymarket · | 26 · 74 model 2.0 | – | +20 NCSU, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| MERC at SBU Mercyhurst Lakers at St. Bonaventure Bonnies | 25 · 75 Kalshi · | 26 · 74 Polymarket · | 44 · 56 model 2.0 | – | +18 SBU, Kalshi | Matchup |
20 of 55 games with a price, the biggest gaps to the model first. The other 35 are priced too; each is on its game page.
Women's college basketball prediction market odds Thursday, November 12
28 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN at OSU UConn Huskies at Ohio State Buckeyes | 91 · 9 Kalshi · | no market | 37 · 63 model 2.0 | – | −54 OSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MICH at COLU Michigan Wolverines at Columbia Lions | 92 · 8 Kalshi · | 92 · 8 Polymarket · | 42 · 58 model 2.0 | – | −50 COLU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LOU at BALL Louisville Cardinals at Ball State Cardinals | 94 · 6 Kalshi · | no market | 58 · 42 model 2.0 | – | −36 BALL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| COFC at CAL Charleston Cougars at California Golden Bears | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | no market | 34 · 66 model 2.0 | – | +33 CAL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NDSU at BTLR North Dakota State Bison at Butler Bulldogs | 19 · 81 Kalshi · | no market | 44 · 56 model 2.0 | – | +25 BTLR, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| OKST at TLSA Oklahoma State Cowgirls at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 94 · 6 Kalshi · | 95 · 5 Polymarket · | 73 · 27 model 2.0 | – | −22 TLSA, Polymarket | Matchup | |
| SC at CLEM South Carolina Gamecocks at Clemson Tigers | 98 · 2 Kalshi · | no market | 76 · 24 model 2.0 | – | −21 CLEM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UNF at LR North Florida Ospreys at Little Rock Trojans | 42 · 58 Kalshi · | no market | 22 · 78 model 2.0 | – | −20 LR, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DUKE at NORF Duke Blue Devils at Norfolk State Spartans | 100 · 0 Kalshi · | 99 · 1 Polymarket · | 80 · 20 model 2.0 | – | −20 NORF, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UMES at GT Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 4 · 96 Kalshi · | no market | 21 · 79 model 2.0 | – | +17 GT, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| JKST at USM Jackson State Lady Tigers at Southern Miss Lady Eagles | 9 · 91 Kalshi · | no market | 25 · 75 model 2.0 | – | +16 USM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ALA at MEM Alabama Crimson Tide at Memphis Tigers | 92 · 8 Kalshi · | no market | 77 · 23 model 2.0 | – | −15 MEM, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SAC at BUF Sacramento State Hornets at Buffalo Bulls | 82 · 18 Kalshi · | no market | 67 · 33 model 2.0 | – | −15 BUF, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UAPB at ARK Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Arkansas Razorbacks | 1 · 99 Kalshi · | 2 · 98 Polymarket · | 16 · 84 model 2.0 | – | +15 ARK, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MTSU at TENN Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 5 · 95 Kalshi · | 4 · 96 Polymarket · | 18 · 82 model 2.0 | – | +14 TENN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| URI at WAG Rhode Island Rams at Wagner Seahawks | 98 · 2 Kalshi · | 96 · 4 Polymarket · | 84 · 16 model 2.0 | – | −14 WAG, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UNI at IOWA Northern Iowa Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | 1 · 99 Polymarket · | 14 · 86 model 2.0 | – | +13 IOWA, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MRMK at VILL Merrimack Warriors at Villanova Wildcats | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | +11 VILL, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| VT at VCU Virginia Tech Hokies at VCU Rams | 90 · 10 Kalshi · | no market | 81 · 19 model 2.0 | – | −9 VCU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| HOW at ISU Howard Bison at Iowa State Cyclones | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | no market | 15 · 85 model 2.0 | – | +9 ISU, Kalshi | Matchup |
20 of 28 games with a price, the biggest gaps to the model first. The other 8 are priced too; each is on its game page.
Women's college basketball prediction market odds Friday, November 13
10 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARQ at MOST Marquette Golden Eagles at Missouri State Lady Bears | 93 · 7 Kalshi · | no market | 20 · 80 model 2.0 | – | −73 MOST, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SMC at HAW Saint Mary's Gaels at Hawai'i Rainbow Wahine | 72 · 28 Kalshi · | no market | 21 · 79 model 2.0 | – | −51 HAW, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TOW at L-MD Towson Tigers at Loyola Maryland Greyhounds | 83 · 17 Kalshi · | no market | 57 · 43 model 2.0 | – | −26 L-MD, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ORE at ME Oregon Ducks at Maine Black Bears | 77 · 23 Kalshi · | no market | 53 · 47 model 2.0 | – | −24 ME, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SAM at IU Samford Bulldogs at Indiana Hoosiers | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | no market | 17 · 83 model 2.0 | – | +15 IU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| AMCC at TXST Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders at Texas State Bobcats | 7 · 93 Kalshi · | no market | 19 · 81 model 2.0 | – | +12 TXST, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| ORU at OU Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at Oklahoma Sooners | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 7 · 93 model 2.0 | – | +7 OU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MORG at UMBC Morgan State Lady Bears at UMBC Retrievers | 7 · 93 Kalshi · | no market | 10 · 90 model 2.0 | – | +3 UMBC, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| NU at WVU Northwestern Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | no market | 4 · 96 model 2.0 | – | −2 WVU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DEN at LSU Denver Pioneers at LSU Tigers | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 0 · 100 model 2.0 | – | 0 LSU, Kalshi | Matchup |
Women's college basketball prediction market odds Saturday, November 14
13 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Kalshi away · home | Polymarket away · home | Bandwagon model away · home | Bandwagon away · home | Gap market − model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEB at KU Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kansas Jayhawks | 7 · 93 Kalshi · | no market | 61 · 39 model 2.0 | – | +54 KU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| MINN at KSU Minnesota Golden Gophers at Kansas State Wildcats | 94 · 6 Kalshi · | no market | 72 · 28 model 2.0 | – | −22 KSU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| UIW at UNT Incarnate Word Cardinals at North Texas Mean Green | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | no market | 18 · 82 model 2.0 | – | +16 UNT, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LIU at GW Long Island University Sharks at George Washington Revolutionaries | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | no market | 22 · 78 model 2.0 | – | +16 GW, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| YSU at COLO Youngstown State Penguins at Colorado Buffaloes | 7 · 93 Kalshi · | no market | 22 · 78 model 2.0 | – | +15 COLO, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CHSO at PITT Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Panthers | 6 · 94 Kalshi · | no market | 21 · 79 model 2.0 | – | +15 PITT, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| LBSU at PORT Long Beach State Beach at Portland Pilots | 3 · 97 Kalshi · | no market | 12 · 88 model 2.0 | – | +9 PORT, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| DEP at ND DePaul Blue Demons at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | no market | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | +9 ND, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BU at QUIN Boston University Terriers at Quinnipiac Bobcats | 5 · 95 Kalshi · | no market | 11 · 89 model 2.0 | – | +6 QUIN, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| CCSU at MASS Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Massachusetts Minutewomen | 2 · 98 Kalshi · | no market | 6 · 94 model 2.0 | – | +4 MASS, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| TAR at TEX Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 3 · 97 model 2.0 | – | +3 TEX, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| SCST at HPU South Carolina State Lady Bulldogs at High Point Panthers | 0 · 100 Kalshi · | no market | 3 · 97 model 2.0 | – | +3 HPU, Kalshi | Matchup | |
| BRAD at BELL Bradley Braves at Bellarmine Knights | 93 · 7 Kalshi · | no market | 93 · 7 model 2.0 | – | 0 BELL, Kalshi | Matchup |
Women's college basketball national championship odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
All teams| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Axle rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| USC Trojans | 31% | – | #26 |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 30% | – | #2 |
| UConn Huskies | 21% | – | #3 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 7.5% | – | #7 |
| Texas Longhorns | 4.6% | – | #4 |
| LSU Tigers | 3.3% | – | #5 |
| UCLA Bruins | 2.4% | – | #1 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 1.9% | – | #6 |
Women's college basketball: market versus model record
- Kalshi's closing price beat the model in Women's college basketball over 120 games (Brier 0.0749 against 0.133, lower is better).
- Polymarket's closing price beat the model in Women's college basketball over 118 games (Brier 0.0743 against 0.1325, lower is better).
| League | Games | Who | n | Brier | Log loss | Straight-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women's college basketball | Kalshi games | Kalshi price | 120 | 0.0749 | 0.2534 | 88% |
| Women's college basketball | Kalshi games | Bandwagon model | 120 | 0.133 | 0.4231 | 83% |
| Women's college basketball | Polymarket games | Polymarket price | 118 | 0.0743 | 0.2519 | 89% |
| Women's college basketball | Polymarket games | Bandwagon model | 118 | 0.1325 | 0.4216 | 84% |
The model's numbers are on the same games the market was scored on. 0.25 Brier and 0.693 log loss are a coin flip.
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Kalshi and Polymarket prices for upcoming Women's college basketball games and the season, next to Bandwagon's model and the crowd's picks, with the record of who was right. Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers.