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Axle 2.076% straight up1147 games
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Moody Center · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model

Tarleton State at Texas: Bandwagon's model makes Texas a 97% favorite (Texas −26); Kalshi prices them at 100%.

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns model odds and win probability

TAR · AWAYTarleton State1-1 · won 3 of last 5
Tip-offMoody Center
TEX · HOMETexas2-0 · won 4 of last 5

Axle gives Texas a 97% chance to win, by about 26 points.

Tarleton State 3%Texas 97%
Projected score52–78Tarleton State–Texas
Model spreadTEX −26TAR +26
Model total130points
Model moneyline+2952 / −2952TAR / TEX

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Axle versus the markets and the crowd

Every WCBB market

Each bar is the chance that Texas win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 97%.

Axle 2.0Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET97%
KalshiNov 11, 1:51 AM ET100%

The largest gap is 3 points: Kalshi has Texas at 100%, Axle at 97%.

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got · no picks yet

Hop on a side before tip-off

▲ Tarleton StateAxle 3%▲ TexasAxle's side · 97%

Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.

Why Axle has Texas

All WCBB ratings
TAR and TEX side by side
TARTEX
Rating1456 221st of 3571840 4th of 357
Record1-12-0
Last 5 games3-24-1
StreakL1W2
Home fieldNoYes
Meetings won01

Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.

How Axle's line has moved

Line movementTEX win chance, 225 stored lines
+1 pts for TEX since Nov 2
100%91%
Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET: TEX 96%Nov 3, 8:28 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET: TEX 96%Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 3:07 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 7:48 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 8:08 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 8:58 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 9:18 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 9:43 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 10:22 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 5, 11:56 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 6, 1:58 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 6, 5:49 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 6, 8:57 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 6, 9:52 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 6, 11:35 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 7, 2:25 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 7, 4:14 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 7, 4:55 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 7, 6:04 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 7, 8:49 PM ET: TEX 96%Nov 7, 11:00 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 8, 2:58 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 8, 3:23 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 8, 4:14 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 8, 5:43 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 8, 6:58 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 9, 1:58 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET: TEX 97%Nov 10, 2:12 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET: TEX 97%Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET: TEX 97%
Nov 2Nov 6Now
Every stored line
StoredTEX winMove
Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET97%0
Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET97%0
Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET97%0
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Nov 10, 6:48 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 2:12 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 1:58 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 1:08 PM ET97%0
Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET97%0
Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET97%0
Nov 9, 11:13 PM ET97%0
Nov 9, 10:58 PM ET97%0
Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET97%0
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Nov 8, 7:28 PM ET97%0
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Nov 8, 6:23 PM ET97%0
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Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET97%0
Nov 7, 11:00 PM ET97%0
Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET97%+1
Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET96%0
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Nov 7, 8:49 PM ET96%0
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Nov 5, 1:56 PM ET96%0
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Nov 5, 12:01 AM ET96%0
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET96%0
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Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET96%0
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Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET96%0
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Nov 3, 1:03 PM ET96%0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET96%0
Nov 3, 12:34 AM ET96%0
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Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET96%0
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Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET96%0
Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET96%0
Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET96%0
Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET96%—

The newest 201 of 225 stored lines.

Tarleton State vs Texas odds on Kalshi

Every Women's college basketball market

Kalshi prices Longhorns at 100%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 97%.

Prices read: Kalshi ; Axle 2.0 .

SourceTARTEXPrice read
Kalshi0%100%
Bandwagon model3%97% · model 2.0
Kalshi minus model, TEX: +3

Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Longhorns a 26-point favorite at home, with a 97% chance to win. The model total is 130. Ratings: Longhorns 1840 (4th of 357), Texans 1456 (221st). The Longhorns are 2-0; the Texans are 1-1. The Longhorns have won 4 of their last 5; the Texans 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Longhorns won 1, the Texans 0.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Form, head-to-head and injuries

Recent form

Tarleton State Texans

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at TCU Horned FrogsL 42–89––matchup
vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden LionsW 66–47––matchup
at California Baptist LancersL 60–77––matchup
at Utah Valley WolverinesW 60–57––matchup
at UT Arlington MavericksW 65–54––matchup

Texas Longhorns

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Northern Colorado BearsW 91–29––matchup
vs Fairleigh Dickinson KnightsW 85–65––matchup
at UCLA BruinsL 44–51––matchup
vs Michigan WolverinesW 77–41––matchup
vs Kentucky WildcatsW 76–54––matchup

Head-to-head

GameKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns41–83––matchup

Injuries

Tarleton State Texans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Texas Longhorns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Texans1-1 6th · L1
  • Texans rating1456 221st of 357, 2 games
  • Longhorns2-0 16th · W2
  • Longhorns rating1840 4th of 357, 2 games

More WCBB games in the next 7 days

Huskies vs Mean GreenAxle: Mean Green 91%Kalshi 97%Cardinals vs RoadrunnersAxle: Roadrunners 82%Kalshi 88%Wildcats vs CougarsAxle: Cougars 93%Kalshi 100%Jaguars vs OwlsAxle: Owls 65%Kalshi 82%
Tarleton State pageTexas pageWCBB odds boardWCBB on Kalshi and PolymarketWeekly pick'emAxle's recordOdds calculators

The bandwagon on each team

Tarleton State Texans 1-1

NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TARWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TARWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TARWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $TARWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tarleton State Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Texans roster, schedule and more

Texas Longhorns 2-0

NCAA Division I women's basketball · 16th · streak W2

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TEXWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TEXWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TEXWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $TEXWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas Longhorns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Longhorns roster, schedule and more

Takes on Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns

Sign in to post a take on $TARWBBTEXWBB261114: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

How Axle makes this line

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
  • Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
  • Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Model: Texas 97% to win. Projected score Texas 78, Tarleton State 52; spread Texas −26, total 130. Kalshi 100% for Texas. Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns, Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET.