San Francisco Dons vs Air Force Falcons prediction, odds and picks, November 11, 2026
- Projected winnerAir Force 58%
- Projected scoreAir Force 68, San Francisco 63
- Model spreadAir Force −5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Francisco Dons or Air Force Falcons: the bandwagon
Axle 42–58Market –
San Francisco Dons at Air Force Falcons win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San Francisco Dons vs Air Force Falcons live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
San Francisco Dons vs Air Force Falcons team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SF | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SF– | AF– |
| Average win probability | SF– | AF– |
| Longest scoring run | SF– | AF– |
| Time leading | SF– | AF– |
San Francisco Dons vs Air Force Falcons odds
Every stored line
| Stored | AF win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:48 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:33 PM ET | 58% | +3 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 54% | −9 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- AF 1472 · SF 1496
- Home spread
- −5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
San Francisco Dons vs Air Force Falcons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Falcons a 5-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Falcons 1472 (204th of 356), Dons 1496 (174th). The Falcons are 0-0; the Dons are 0-0. The Falcons have won 3 of their last 5; the Dons 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Francisco Dons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Montana State Bobcats | L 53–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Valley Wolverines | W 80–50 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Santa Clara Broncos | L 69–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Pepperdine Waves | W 86–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego Toreros | W 61–52 | – | – | matchup |
Air Force Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Denver Pioneers | W 66–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Colorado Bears | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 42–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boise State Broncos | W 68–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | W 83–76 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
San Francisco Dons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Air Force Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Dons0-0 9th · -
- Dons rating1496 174th of 356, 0 games
- Falcons0-0 3rd · -
- Falcons rating1472 204th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 9th · streak -
No stances yet today on $SFWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Francisco Dons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak -
No stances yet today on $AFWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Air Force Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on San Francisco Dons at Air Force Falcons
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Model: Air Force 58% to win. Projected score Air Force 68, San Francisco 63; spread Air Force −5, total 130.5. San Francisco Dons at Air Force Falcons, Wed, Nov 11, 6:00 PM ET.