Mercyhurst Lakers vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Mercyhurst at St. Bonaventure: Bandwagon's model makes St. Bonaventure a 56% favorite (St. Bonaventure −4.5); Kalshi prices them at 74%.
Mercyhurst Lakers vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies model odds and win probability
Axle gives St. Bonaventure a 56% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every WCBB marketEach bar is the chance that St. Bonaventure win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 56%.
The largest gap is 18 points: Kalshi has St. Bonaventure at 74%, Axle at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has St. Bonaventure
All WCBB ratings| MERC | SBU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1479 189th of 357 | 1444 235th of 357 |
| Record | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 games | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SBU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:37 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:47 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:52 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:08 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:08 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:53 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 7:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 3:57 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:43 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:58 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:53 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:13 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:48 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:43 PM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | — |
Mercyhurst vs St. Bonaventure odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Women's college basketball marketKalshi prices Bonnies at 74%, Polymarket at 74%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MERC | SBU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 26% | 74% | ||
| Polymarket | 26% | 74% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 44% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Mercyhurst Lakers vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bonnies a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Bonnies 1444 (235th of 357), Lakers 1479 (189th). The Bonnies are 1-0; the Lakers are 1-2. The Bonnies have won 2 of their last 5; the Lakers 0 of their last 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 57–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seton Hall Pirates | L 37–63 | – | – | matchup |
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L 50–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Drexel Dragons | W 69–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Loyola Chicago Ramblers | L 59–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fordham Rams | W 77–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at George Washington Revolutionaries | L 47–61 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Mercyhurst Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
St. Bonaventure Bonnies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lakers1-2 5th · L1
- Lakers rating1479 189th of 357, 2 games
- Bonnies1-0 3rd · W1
- Bonnies rating1444 235th of 357, 0 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $MERCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercyhurst Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $SBUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mercyhurst Lakers at St. Bonaventure Bonnies
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: St. Bonaventure 56% to win. Projected score St. Bonaventure 67, Mercyhurst 63; spread St. Bonaventure −4.5, total 130.5. Kalshi 74%, Polymarket 74% for St. Bonaventure. Mercyhurst Lakers at St. Bonaventure Bonnies, Wed, Nov 11, 4:30 PM ET.