Ohio State Buckeyes beat Mercyhurst Lakers 91-57, a 34-point margin at the final whistle. The model had the Buckeyes at 92% before tip, and the crowd did not register a pick on this one.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Value City Arena · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes: final score and how the prediction did, November 8, 2026
- Final scoreMercyhurst 57, Ohio State 91 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerOhio State 92%
- Pregame Projected scoreOhio State 73, Mercyhurst 54
- Model spreadOhio State −19 total 127.5
- Margin34 projected 19
- Total148 projected 127.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Mercyhurst Lakers or Ohio State Buckeyes: the bandwagon
Axle pregame 8–92Market 1–99
FinalPregame: OSU 92%Baseline: OSU 99.0% (+7.5)Big swing: 2.7 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERC | 18 | 11 | 16 | 12 | 57 |
| OSU | 29 | 22 | 20 | 20 | 91 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Mercyhurst Lakers at Ohio State Buckeyes win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for OSU over the last 5:00
Big swing2.7 ptstoward OSU at 1:51 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineOSU 99.0%game average, +7.5 points from the pregame 91.5%
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MERC | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | MERC21/62 | OSU35/54 |
| 3-pointers | MERC10/35 | OSU5/14 |
| Free throws | MERC5/5 | OSU16/21 |
| Rebounds | MERC20 | OSU40 |
| Assists | MERC10 | OSU19 |
| Turnovers | MERC21 | OSU18 |
| Steals | MERC8 | OSU16 |
| Blocks | MERC0 | OSU8 |
| Points in the paint | MERC18 | OSU56 |
| Fast-break points | MERC7 | OSU37 |
| Fouls | MERC19 | OSU7 |
| Largest lead | MERC2 | OSU34 |
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MERC | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MERC57 | OSU91 |
| Average win probability | MERC1% | OSU99% |
| Longest scoring run | MERC+3 | OSU+11 |
| Time leading | MERC0:00 | OSU37:40 |
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET
Lakers8%
Win chanceBuckeyes92%
SpreadOSU −19closing model spread
Total127.5
Moneyline+1079away / −1079homeaway / home
Line movementOSU win chance, 5 stored lines
+2 pts for OSU between Nov 7 and Nov 8
97%85%
Nov 7Nov 8
Every stored line
| Stored | OSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 92% | +2 |
| Nov 7, 10:47 PM ET | 90% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 90% | — |
- Ratings
- OSU 1737 · MERC 1486
- Home spread
- −19
- Stored
- Nov 8, 2:18 PM ET · 2026-11-08 19:18 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Mercyhurst Lakers 57, Ohio State Buckeyes 91. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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LakersBuckeyes
Neutrals only–
LakersBuckeyes
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Buckeyes–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Mercyhurst vs Ohio State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Women's college basketball marketKalshi had Buckeyes at 100% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 99% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 92% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | MERC | OSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 0% | 100% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 1% | 99% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 8% | 92% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, OSU: +8Polymarket minus model, OSU: +7
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Buckeyes a 19-point favorite at home, with a 92% chance to win. The model total is 127.5. Ratings: Buckeyes 1743 (12th of 357), Lakers 1479 (189th). The Buckeyes are 3-0; the Lakers are 1-2. The Buckeyes have won 4 of their last 5; the Lakers 0 of their last 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ohio State Buckeyes | L 57–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seton Hall Pirates | L 37–63 | – | – | matchup |
Ohio State Buckeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Mercyhurst Lakers | W 91–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Michigan Chippewas | W 103–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UIC Flames | W 81–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 73–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Howard Bison | W 75–54 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Mercyhurst Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ohio State Buckeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lakers1-2 5th · L1
- Lakers rating1479 189th of 357, 2 games
- Buckeyes3-0 4th · W3
- Buckeyes rating1743 12th of 357, 3 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MERCWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $MERCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercyhurst Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak W3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $OSUWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $OSUWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $OSUWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $OSUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ohio State Buckeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mercyhurst Lakers at Ohio State Buckeyes
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Final: Mercyhurst 57, Ohio State 91. Bandwagon's model had the Ohio State at 92% and projected Ohio State 73, Mercyhurst 54; spread Ohio State −19, total 127.5. Last read: Kalshi 100%, Polymarket 99% for Ohio State.