Troy Trojans vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction, odds and picks, November 11, 2026
- Projected winnerMississippi State 56%
- Projected scoreMississippi State 67, Troy 63
- Model spreadMississippi State −4.5 total 130.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Troy Trojans or Mississippi State Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 44–56Market –
Troy Trojans at Mississippi State Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Troy Trojans vs Mississippi State Bulldogs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Troy Trojans vs Mississippi State Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TROY | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TROY– | MSST– |
| Average win probability | TROY– | MSST– |
| Longest scoring run | TROY– | MSST– |
| Time leading | TROY– | MSST– |
Troy Trojans vs Mississippi State Bulldogs odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MSST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET | 56% | +3 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 53% | −3 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 56% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 52% | −11 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- MSST 1593 · TROY 1642
- Home spread
- −4.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Troy Trojans vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 4.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1593 (80th of 356), Trojans 1642 (45th). The Bulldogs are 0-0; the Trojans are 0-0. The Bulldogs have won 1 of their last 5; the Trojans 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Troy Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Kent State Golden Flashes | W 89–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas Jayhawks | L 70–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | L 52–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 83–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | L 69–76 | – | – | matchup |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Alabama Lions | W 68–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Gators | L 68–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU Tigers | L 63–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 64–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Longhorns | L 42–92 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Troy Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Mississippi State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trojans0-0 13th · -
- Trojans rating1642 45th of 356, 1 games
- Bulldogs0-0 12th · -
- Bulldogs rating1593 80th of 356, 1 games
Troy Trojans 0-0
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 13th · streak -
No stances yet today on $TROYWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troy Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 12th · streak -
No stances yet today on $MSSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Troy Trojans at Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Model: Mississippi State 56% to win. Projected score Mississippi State 67, Troy 63; spread Mississippi State −4.5, total 130.5. Troy Trojans at Mississippi State Bulldogs, Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET.