Mississippi State Bulldogs and North Alabama Lions are tied 2-2 at 8:01 of the 1st. The model has Mississippi State at 79% and no crowd picks are in yet, so the model is the only number on the board.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · Humphrey Coliseum · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
North Alabama Lions vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreNorth Alabama 27, Mississippi State 68 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMississippi State 79%
- Pregame Projected scoreMississippi State 71, North Alabama 59
- Model spreadMississippi State −11.5 total 130.5
- Margin41 projected 11.7
- Total95 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Alabama Lions or Mississippi State Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 21–79Market –
FinalPregame: MSST 79%Baseline: MSST 94.6% (+15.6)Big swing: 12.2 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNA | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 27 |
| MSST | 15 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 68 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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North Alabama Lions at Mississippi State Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for MSST over the last 5:00
Big swing12.2 ptstoward MSST at 8:07 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineMSST 94.6%game average, +15.6 points from the pregame 79.0%
North Alabama Lions vs Mississippi State Bulldogs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UNA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | UNA9/54 | MSST27/64 |
| 3-pointers | UNA2/26 | MSST4/19 |
| Free throws | UNA7/17 | MSST10/15 |
| Rebounds | UNA44 | MSST45 |
| Assists | UNA4 | MSST9 |
| Turnovers | UNA33 | MSST18 |
| Steals | UNA7 | MSST20 |
| Blocks | UNA2 | MSST7 |
| Points in the paint | UNA12 | MSST44 |
| Fast-break points | UNA0 | MSST17 |
| Fouls | UNA18 | MSST21 |
| Largest lead | UNA2 | MSST44 |
North Alabama Lions vs Mississippi State Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UNA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UNA27 | MSST68 |
| Average win probability | UNA5% | MSST95% |
| Longest scoring run | UNA+3 | MSST+13 |
| Time leading | UNA0:00 | MSST37:45 |
North Alabama Lions vs Mississippi State Bulldogs odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 19 h ago
Lions21%
Win chanceBulldogs79%
SpreadMSST −11.5closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+377away / −377homeaway / home
Line movementMSST win chance, 31 stored lines
+16 pts for MSST between Oct 29 and Nov 3
88%58%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | MSST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:28 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:06 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:27 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 79% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 79% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 83% | +20 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- MSST 1578 · UNA 1465
- Home spread
- −11.5
- Stored
- Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET · 2026-11-04 02:08 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −12 → −11.5
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: North Alabama Lions 27, Mississippi State Bulldogs 68. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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LionsBulldogs
Neutrals only–
LionsBulldogs
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bulldogs–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Alabama Lions vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 79% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1593 (80th of 356), Lions 1450 (225th). The Bulldogs are 0-0; the Lions are 0-0. The Bulldogs have won 1 of their last 5; the Lions 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulldogs won 1, the Lions 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Alabama Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Mississippi State Bulldogs | L 27–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | L 56–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs West Georgia Wolves | W 118–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Arkansas Sugar Bears | L 55–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lipscomb Bisons | W 68–63 | – | – | matchup |
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs North Alabama Lions | W 68–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Gators | L 68–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LSU Tigers | L 63–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas A&M Aggies | L 64–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Longhorns | L 42–92 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Alabama Lions at Mississippi State Bulldogs | 40–77 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
North Alabama Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Mississippi State Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lions0-0 6th · -
- Lions rating1450 225th of 356, 1 games
- Bulldogs0-0 12th · -
- Bulldogs rating1593 80th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UNAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UNAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UNAWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UNAWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Alabama Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 12th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MSSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MSSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MSSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MSSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mississippi State Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Alabama Lions at Mississippi State Bulldogs
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Final: North Alabama 27, Mississippi State 68. Bandwagon's model had the Mississippi State at 79% and projected Mississippi State 71, North Alabama 59; spread Mississippi State −11.5, total 130.5.