Green Bay Phoenix vs Illinois State Redbirds prediction, odds and picks, November 11, 2026
- Projected winnerIllinois State 52%
- Projected scoreIllinois State 69, Green Bay 66
- Model spreadIllinois State −3 total 134.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Green Bay Phoenix or Illinois State Redbirds: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market –
Green Bay Phoenix at Illinois State Redbirds win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Green Bay Phoenix vs Illinois State Redbirds live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Green Bay Phoenix vs Illinois State Redbirds team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | GB | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | GB– | ILST– |
| Average win probability | GB– | ILST– |
| Longest scoring run | GB– | ILST– |
| Time leading | GB– | ILST– |
Green Bay Phoenix vs Illinois State Redbirds odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ILST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET | 52% | +2 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 50% | +1 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 49% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 46% | −17 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- ILST 1547 · GB 1602
- Home spread
- −3
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Green Bay Phoenix vs Illinois State Redbirds prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Redbirds a 3-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 134.5. Ratings: Redbirds 1547 (123rd of 356), Phoenix 1602 (74th). The Redbirds are 0-0; the Phoenix are 0-0. The Redbirds have won 4 of their last 5; the Phoenix 3 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Redbirds won 0, the Phoenix 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Green Bay Phoenix
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Duke Blue Devils | L 60–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 58–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Youngstown State Penguins | W 57–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W 73–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Detroit Mercy Titans | W 81–57 | – | – | matchup |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago State Cougars | W 106–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | L 41–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Dakota Coyotes | W 67–60 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs George Washington Revolutionaries | W 61–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Abilene Christian Wildcats | W 59–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State Redbirds at Green Bay Phoenix | 62–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| Green Bay Phoenix at Illinois State Redbirds | 63–49 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Green Bay Phoenix: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Illinois State Redbirds: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Phoenix0-0 4th · -
- Phoenix rating1602 74th of 356, 1 games
- Redbirds0-0 5th · -
- Redbirds rating1547 123rd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak -
No stances yet today on $GBWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Green Bay Phoenix bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak -
No stances yet today on $ILSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois State Redbirds bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Green Bay Phoenix at Illinois State Redbirds
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Model: Illinois State 52% to win. Projected score Illinois State 69, Green Bay 66; spread Illinois State −3, total 134.5. Green Bay Phoenix at Illinois State Redbirds, Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET.