Louisville Cardinals vs Ball State Cardinals prediction, odds and picks, November 12, 2026
- Projected winnerLouisville 53%
- Model spreadBall State −2 total 135.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Louisville Cardinals or Ball State Cardinals: the bandwagon
Axle 53–47Market –
Louisville Cardinals at Ball State Cardinals win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Louisville Cardinals vs Ball State Cardinals live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Louisville Cardinals vs Ball State Cardinals team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LOU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LOU– | BALL– |
| Average win probability | LOU– | BALL– |
| Longest scoring run | LOU– | BALL– |
| Time leading | LOU– | BALL– |
Louisville Cardinals vs Ball State Cardinals odds
Every stored line
| Stored | BALL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:15 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:15 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 47% | +2 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:36 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:11 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 46% | +7 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 39% | — |
- Ratings
- BALL 1643 · LOU 1735
- Home spread
- −2
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:15 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:15 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Louisville Cardinals vs Ball State Cardinals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cardinals the favorite, with a 53% chance to win; its spread is Cardinals −2. The model total is 135.5. Ratings: Cardinals 1643 (43rd of 356), Cardinals 1735 (11th). The Cardinals are 1-0; the Cardinals are 1-0. The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5; the Cardinals 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Cardinals won 0, the Cardinals 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Louisville Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Bellarmine Knights | W 119–47 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 52–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Alabama Crimson Tide | W 69–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vermont Catamounts | W 72–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Duke Blue Devils | L 65–70 | – | – | matchup |
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 84–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 65–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | W 75–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | W 78–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | W 86–85 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals at Louisville Cardinals | 62–93 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Louisville Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinals1-0 6th · W1
- Cardinals rating1735 11th of 356, 1 games
- Cardinals1-0 1st · W1
- Cardinals rating1643 43rd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $LOUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Louisville Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $BALLWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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